World order change coming?

Online Opinion

Lim Teck Ghee

Whether it is Trump or Harris winning the Presidential election, he or she will have to prioritise the domestic issues dividing the country and which their respective parties and political leadership have been unable to deal with.

With Australia's media fixated on the United States (US) presidential election, they are missing examining the unprecedented turbulence rocking key players in geopolitics and the current world order dominated by the United States which Australia has reinforced its commitment to.

The Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies forum which has coordinated global economic policy for fifty years, and functioned as a handmaiden of American economic and foreign policy interests and agenda, is in disarray.

Italy has a newly elected president from the radical rightwing and its nationalist conservatism wave, anti incumbency, anti immigrant sentiments, and electoral volatility have had aftershocks reverberate across the continent.

Today, France and Germany, the leading European nations, are having the grip of long running establishment parties not just challenged but also considerably loosened. Emmanuel Macron is virtually a lame duck President for the next 3 years with diluted powers in domestic and foreign policy. A similar fate awaits Olaf Scholz. Although not due for a leadership challenge soon, Scholz is in charge of a coalition government which has turned further right and splintered more during the recent European Parliament election.

Meanwhile in Japan, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio has booted himself out of his leadership position in government and the Liberal Democratic party. Faced with a lacklustre economy, endemic political and money scandals, and unpopular ruling and opposition parties, Japan is stalled for the foreseeable future with weak factionless leadership lacking strong majority support.

Rudderless in domestic politics, Japan has become more dependent on the US for foreign policy leadership. This is clear by its break from a more pacifist foreign policy to one with a record military expenditure for 2024, and which is slated to increase until 2027. Besides greater convergence with US policy in the Asia Pacific region to contain and contest China, the Japanese government is loosening export restrictions on the supply of lethal weapons munitions to other countries. So much for the lessons learnt from its Second World War disastrous experience and Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

What Happens After November

As with G7's malaise, whether it is Trump or Harris winning the Presidential election, he or she will have to prioritise the domestic issues dividing the country, and which their respective parties and political leadership have been unable to deal with.

Better jobs, inflation, immigration, race, abortion, health care, Supreme Court and justice, crime and gun control - the blend and interplay of socio-cultural, economic and political homegrown problems and concerns have become mainstream. They have also grown more toxic and unresolvable. Whoever wins, however large the margin and whatever the feel good cheerleaders in the media and think tanks, including in Australia, may have to say in the election aftermath, US society - post election - will remain polarised and disunited with Republicans and Democratic leaders and party supporters standing firm and unyielding on opposite sides of the major domestic issues.

Meantime, the polls tracking American trust in government which go back to 1958 are at or near record lows. As of April 2024, an overwhelming minority 22% of Americans say they trust the government in Washington to do what is right "just about always" (2%) or "most of the time" (21%). Last year, 16% said they trusted the government just about always or most of the time, which was among the lowest measures in nearly seven decades of polling.

What is also significant is that there is little trust in most of the major US institutions. Whether it be the presidency, Congress, judiciary, medical system, the Church and organised religion, banks, police, public schools, newspapers and TV news, etc, American public trust in the institutions that are the hallmark of their way of life has plummeted to levels that resemble those of the 'failed' states that US media and admirers are prone to calling out when targeting countries for criticism.

If US leaders cannot inspire trust in their institutions or provide confidence to their own public, what is it that Australia can expect from them to inspire and sell to this 'lucky' country and the Asia-Pacific region?

For now, there should be no illusion that the US - through the enormous resources, reach and primacy of its military - industrial - commercial - media and academic complex (MICMA) and the support of Australia, its deputy sheriff in the region, and the few other allies - will continue being the chief instigator and perpetrator of wars, military conquest, gunboat diplomacy, unequal treaties, economic exploitation, sanctions and other dirty tricks.

We can expect It to be business as usual for America's MICMA, which has junior members mainly from developed European countries and Russia, in the global weapons market. They are being joined by a few other countries, including China, South Korea, India and Turkey jostling for a place at the minor but still highly lucrative weapons buffet table. Australia's arms exports reached a record level in 2020 but perhaps investment in AUKUS can help it to even higher levels.

Pay Up Or Else!

There will be one important difference though for G7 and NATO members arising from the US Presidential outcome. Whoever it is Kamala or Trump who wins, their administration will insist that member countries will have to cough up and pay a lot more in view of the distressed state of the US national debt which recently hit a record US$34 trillion, the huge annual deficit of over US1.5 trillion so far for 2024, and the massive investment required to even address partially the nation's economic shortcomings and challenges.

According to a Le Monde report, "Why did Donald Trump accuse NATO members of not paying?", Trump noted:

"I said, 'You didn't pay, you're delinquent [...] No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage [the Russians] to do whatever the hell they want.'"

The UK Guardian quoted the following:

He (Trump) recounted a conversation with an unidentified NATO member in which he said, "You didn't pay? You're delinquent? No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills."

Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance has been equally forthright and has declared :

No more free rides for nations that betray the generosity of the American taxpayer.

He also warned:

[We] will send our kids to war only when we must.

It is more than likely that the administration of Kamala Harris if she wins will take the same position as Trump in requiring NATO and other US allies to pay a great deal more to secure the 'privilege' of American protection.

G7 and NATO citizenry perhaps can console themselves that the insistence by the US that it will no longer be the major paymaster of NATO may have a positive counter effect on their foreign policy allegiance and dependence on the US. Should this happen, it may provide a first step to the end of the war in Ukraine and help bring genuine peace and security to the continent.

Elsewhere in the world, Asia-Pacific leaders should take notice too. What G7 and NATO members will have to deal with from the financial year 2025 onwards will have to be reckoned for in the defence budgets in Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines where some of the over 750 military bases of the US around the world are located or in close proximity.

They will find - as Australians are with AUKUS - that the price to pay for being deputy sheriff to the US will cost them and the next generation more than an exorbitant monetary sum. This does not include the consequence of being party to a war over which Canberra and Oz war hawks will have little or no control, and from which there will be no victors.