The impact of the 2024 US presidential election on the world

Over the past half-century, the ideology of the left has dominated both the US and the entire Western world since the 1960s, permeating deeply into the Western and American psyche. Like an old tree sprouting new leaves with the help of a timely breeze, America, which once thrived, has long begun to rot from within - shiny on the outside but decaying on the inside.

The US presidential election in November is another focal point that has captured global attention. Objectively speaking, if the election is fair and transparent, Trump is likely to win. However, confidence in the integrity of US elections has become a joke, leaving little room for optimism.

If Harris wins, the beacon of American democracy will be completely extinguished, and America will no longer have meaningful elections. The country will follow the path of South Africa and Venezuela, leading the world toward an abyss, with Australia likely to be affected in the future.

If Trump wins, America will halt its slide toward the socialist models of South Africa and Venezuela and stop its descent into an irreversible disaster. This victory could save not only America but also the rest of the world.

The potential impact on Taiwan's security

Since Chiang Kai-shek retreated to Taiwan, the island's security has been in jeopardy only once-just before the outbreak of the Korean War, when it was on the verge of being overtaken by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). The Battle of Guningtou marked a turning point, where the Nationalist forces shattered the myth of the CCP's invincibility. However, the Truman administration deliberately left the Republic of China vulnerable to the CCP, with the UK even selling cruisers capable of attacking Taiwan to Mao Zedong. It was Kim Il-sung's crossing of the 38th parallel that awakened Truman from his intention to abandon Taiwan, leading to the deployment of the US Seventh Fleet in the Taiwan Strait, thereby saving Taiwan from immediate danger.

The Sino-Soviet split prompted the US to recalibrate its China policy, leading to an alliance with Beijing against the Soviet Union. In 1972, Nixon's visit to China resulted in a tacit understanding with Beijing and a growing distance from Taipei, along with the abandonment of exiled Tibetans. Later, the Carter administration once again betrayed Taiwan by severing diplomatic ties, nullifying the US-ROC defense treaty, and withdrawing US troops, effectively handing Taiwan over to Beijing. Chiang Ching-kuo, inheriting his father Chiang Kai-shek's determination to resist the CCP, fought against Deng Xiaoping with the "Three No's" policy: no contact, no negotiations, and no compromise. At that time, Beijing's military was not yet strong enough to conquer Taiwan.

However, Taiwan's position has always been a bargaining chip for the US, with Washington adopting a policy of strategic ambiguity. This approach has deterred Beijing while providing some reassurance to Taiwan, but it has also left Taiwan in a constant state of uncertainty and fear.

The outcome of the 2024 US presidential election could significantly affect Taiwan's security. If the US continues its current trajectory of strategic ambiguity under a new administration, Taiwan may remain in a state of precarious balance. However, a shift in US policy-whether toward greater support for Taiwan or closer ties with Beijing-could drastically alter the security landscape for the island, either bolstering its defense against potential aggression or leaving it more vulnerable to the CCP's ambitions.

Trump's possible impact on Taiwan's security

It wasn't until Trump took office that the US began to truly challenge the CCP, starting with a trade war that marked the first significant blow to the CCP from the US On the Taiwan issue, Trump made it clear to Xi Jinping that any rash action would not be tolerated. At Mar-a-Lago, Trump even demonstrated his ability to bypass the United Nations by launching a direct military strike on Syria, firing 59 missiles. Before his inauguration, Trump signaled his stance by allowing a direct phone call from Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, deliberately crossing Beijing's diplomatic red line.

In the 2020 US election, Trump was ousted from the White House through what many believe was widespread election fraud, orchestrated by a coalition of global leftist forces.

As the current US election intensifies, it is expected that the Democrats will repeat their tactics, potentially leading to another manipulation of the results with the backing of the deep state, resulting in what could be dubbed the "Kamala Harris Curve." However, unlike in 2020, the people in the Republican-leaning "red states" may not accept such a fraudulent outcome, potentially leading to civil unrest or even a civil war aimed at saving the country. Such internal chaos in the US would present the CCP with an opportune moment to invade Taiwan, putting the island in grave danger.

If Trump wins the election, Taiwan's security would be assured. Trump would likely abandon the previous US policy of strategic ambiguity in favor of a more explicit and firm stance. He would not stand idly by if Beijing were to attempt a military invasion of Taiwan. Trump has already stated that if Beijing dares to attack Taiwan while he is in the White House, he would bomb Beijing. With such clear protection from the US, Taiwan's safety would be significantly enhanced.

The Influence of Xi Jinping and CCP elders on the World

According to information from within the Chinese system, Xi Jinping enjoys exceptionally high prestige among the mid-to-high levels of the CCP officials. His rise to prominence began after the 18th National Congress of the CCP in 2012, where his demonstrated ruthlessness intimidated the party, further solidified by his relentless anti-corruption campaign.

Xi Jinping's soaring reputation within the CCP is primarily due to two significant events. The first was his political maneuvering to quell the 2019 Hong Kong extradition bill protests, restoring order in a way that impressed the party elite. The second was his firm stance against the United States, particularly his resilience during the US-China trade war, where he withstood Trump's maximum pressure tactics.

After the Gulf War, the CCP leadership, having closely observed and carefully studied the entire process of the war. Jiang Zemin then decided to concentrate national resources on two key areas with the aim of surpassing the United States: computer networks and biological viruses. In 2005, Chi Haotian, a former Chinese military chief, reportedly gave an internal speech advocating the use of biological viruses to eliminate the United States. It's unclear whether Westerners have seen it or if they've ever used their brains to think about CCP's sinister intention to launch a deadly strike against the US and its allies.

In late 2019, Xi Jinping allegedly initiated a biological warfare strategy using the Wuhan COVID-19 virus. This move had dual benefits: it forced Hong Kong's citizens into lockdown, effectively ending the protests, and subsequently allowed the CCP to implement the Hong Kong National Security Law, thereby resolving the Hong Kong issue. Additionally, the Wuhan virus altered the outcome of American 2020 presidential election. Under normal circumstances, Trump was well-positioned for an easy re-election, but the pandemic changed everything. Xi Jinping's role in directing the pandemic response, particularly his "personally deploying, personally directing" approach as mentioned to WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, carried significant implications, though outsiders may not grasp its full meaning.

The US Democrat Administration, which came to power with the help of the pandemic, naturally has little interest in investigating the origins of COVID-19. Within the CCP, Xi Jinping has been recognized as a "once-in-a-millennium" leader, believed to have the potential to lead the CCP to global dominance. In 2022, Xi Jinping further encouraged Putin to initiate the war against Ukraine, offering promises of unlimited cooperation. In reality, this was part of Xi's strategy to eliminate Russia by leveraging Western forces to do the job.

Xi Jinping's influence, both within China and on the global stage, is seen as pivotal in the CCP's quest for world dominance. His strategic decisions and their far-reaching consequences have earned him a formidable reputation within the party, positioning him as a leader capable of navigating China through complex international challenges.

Recent shifts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict: a deeper perspective

The recent shifts in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly Ukraine's incursion into Russian territory, are merely surface-level developments. Beneath the surface lies a more complex picture that requires political insight and imagination to fully grasp. While it is true that Putin initiated the invasion of Ukraine, the renowned American international relations scholar, Professor John Mearsheimer of the University of Chicago, has pointed out that it was the United States that drove the war to erupt. The current developments in the conflict further validate his observation. Although Ukraine has received military aid from the US and NATO since the war began, this support has been restricted, allowing Ukraine only to defend its own territory and not to carry the fight into Russian soil.

It is clear that Biden intended to control the Russia-Ukraine war at his own pace to reap certain benefits. However, now that he is being forced to step down, he may adopt a "nothing to lose" approach, allowing the conflict to escalate. In the Middle East, due to the current administration's severe lack of global leadership-or perhaps because the White House is deliberately playing a dual role as both the guardian of world peace and the instigator of global troubles-the region remains in a state of neither war nor peace, with continuous unrest. This situation could potentially lead to further escalation, pushing the world toward a third world war. In doing so, Biden could attempt to emulate Roosevelt once again, thereby making the 2024 US presidential election unnecessary.

Thus, the shift in the Russia-Ukraine war's dynamics clearly reflects a change in US strategy. American advanced military equipment has played a role, and there may even be direct military involvement. If cornered, Putin could lash out desperately. He has long stated that a world without Russia is not worth existing. The current progress of the Russia-Ukraine war suggests that Russia could be defeated and possibly dismembered, which is one side of the coin. On the other side, however, Putin is unlikely to surrender easily or accept trial by an international court. Unlike Hitler, who chose suicide when he couldn't win the war, Putin has another option: to bring the world down with him.

Can the United States really dismiss Russia's nuclear threat so easily? I doubt it. I am more inclined to believe that this could lead to the world's destruction. Is this merely an alarmist fear or an exaggerated concern? Perhaps not.