Neutralizing Iran’s nuclear threat without force or sanctions

Neutralizing Iran's nuclear weapon program To freeze Iran's nuclear program whereby Tehran would settle on being a nuclear threshold state and not take the final leap to produce a nuclear weapon would be in line with Iran's public position that it does not seek to become a nuclear power and also inhibit regional proliferation of nuclear weapons. To that end, the US ought to pursue an interlinked four-track strategy:

First, a regional security pact under the US nuclear umbrella The US should seek the establishment of a security crescent extending from the Gulf to the Mediterranean that would include Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Jordan, Palestine (the missing link), Israel, and Egypt. This hemispherical security pact would best serve America's and its allies' national security interests and put Iran in check without force. This security alliance will be fashioned along the Saudi-proposed US Defense Pact as a precondition to normalization of relations with Israel, which includes a) US guarantees of Saudi national security, b) fewer restrictions on US arms sales, c) assistance from the US in developing their civilian nuclear program, and d) significant progress toward the creation of a Palestinian state. In connection with such a defense pact, only the requirements (a) and (d) are relevant to our discussion.

Second, the normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations As soon as the Gaza war is concluded, the US ought to resume negotiations with Saudi Arabia about the normalization of relations with Israel. Extensive discussions by the Biden administration and Congress regarding the Saudis' first three requirements have already occurred, and a growing consensus has emerged between the defense establishment and Congress. This will send a clear message to Iran that the US intends to move forward with a defense pact with Saudi Arabia, which will be expanded to blunt any Iranian regional ambitions and threats against the countries included in the agreement. Such a security pact would protect the countries involved and significantly solidify the US' unimpeachable military dominance throughout the region.

Third, mitigating the Israeli-Palestinian conflict To meet the Saudis' final requirement, the US ought to ensure that any future ceasefire between Israel and Hamas establishes a path that would lead to a permanent Israeli-Palestinian settlement. As I have stated time and again, Hamas' attack and the subsequent unfolding horrific war have created a new paradigm. The US administration, be that under Harris or Trump, must put its foot down and stop just talking about a two-state solution but take whatever measures necessary, a mixture of coercion and inducements, to compel Israel to come to terms with the Palestinians' unmitigated reality.

For decades, the US has been and continues to be the chief enabler of Israel. The tragic state of affairs in which Israel and the Palestinians find themselves today can be attributed to a high degree to the US policy toward Israel. With the best of intentions to protect Israel, the US has inadvertently harmed Israel by committing to safeguard Israel's national security while providing it with a blanket political cover. To save Israel from itself, the next US administration ought to make its security and political support of Israel conditional upon Israel's willingness to make a genuine effort and significant concessions toward the creation of a Palestinian state. Indeed, even an interim solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will pull the rug from underneath Iran as it usurps the cause Tehran has exploited for years for its own benefit.

Fourth, offering Iran economic incentives and a promise of no regime change Offering Iran economic incentives for freezing its nuclear weapons program and ending its threats against Israel will go a long way, as long as Iran is also assured that the US will not seek or support regime change. Additionally, the US should promise Tehran that it will not attack and will also prevent Israel from attacking Iran's nuclear facilities. The economic incentives could include lifting certain sanctions, providing access to international financial systems, and facilitating foreign investments in Iran's economy, all of which must be contingent upon Iran's adherence to nuclear restrictions and transparency.

Conclusion

I admit that the proposed new strategy is a tall order and may seem unfeasible given the history and intractability of these intertwined conflicts. But then, how much longer and how many more wars, deaths, and destruction would it take for the US to say enough is enough and adopt this new strategy to bring peace and stability to a turbulent region, regardless of how difficult and how long it might take?