Is Taiwan sleepwalking into an energy crisis?

"Taiwan is going backwards not forwards when it comes to green energy. The reason our energy policy is stuck is because of the 'No Nuclear Homeland' policy. Our carbon emissions keep going up, yet somehow we still feel good about ourselves. We are coming in close to dead last while we tell ourselves we're doing just great. In my opinion, Taiwan is in a state of collective sleepwalking."

The above sounds like exactly what I would say in any of the op-ed pieces I've published in various Taiwanese outlets. But the message lands much harder because of who said it: Chairman TH Tung of Taiwanese tech-giant Pegatron. More importantly in this context, he is also one of the deputy conveners of President Lai Ching-te's new National Climate Change Response Committee. He even says that higher-ups at TSMC is privately in support of his proposals, although he fails to name specific names.

Tung is more aggressive than either Guo or Liu. He is calling for a "golden ratio" of 30% nuclear, 30% renewables and 40% "fuels which could be replaced by hydrogen in the future if technology allows" (translation: fossils). This implies the building of new nuclear power plants as turning on every existing reactor in Taiwan would only get us to around 18% nuclear power on the grid.

Would this go anywhere, or would Tung also get crushed in turn?

What I'm seeing is all the Biz-oriented folks president Lai has been bringing into government trying to course-correct on nuclear getting bullied and shouted down by the DPP's anti-nuclear old guard.

Chairman Tung is completely correct: Taiwan is sleepwalking on this issue and in denial. If Lai is actually antinuclear himself he wouldn't keep putting up these voices of reason in prominent positions. But why then is he not giving them the support necessary to actually prevail?

Renewables faltering

By the way, the party line on nuclear in the DPP is that we don't need it because it is being replaced by renewables. Setting aside whether stable baseload power like nuclear CAN be replaced by intermittent renewables on a 1-1 basis, the problem is the development of our renewable energy resources is also at-risk under the current administration.

In a farewell post on LinkedIn, Managing Director of Taiwan Sean McDermott of Canada's Northland Power gives a stern warning that Taiwan's upcoming offshore wind development could collapse:

"Round 3 is struggling to gain momentum, and the government seems either unable or unwilling to change direction on some of the most problematic elements of the regime. The Round 3 dilemma is simple: risk is high and reward is low. As a consequence, many of the world's largest suppliers and developers are leaving Taiwan; most won't come back."

This is in fact a problem that has been well-understood within the industry: because the DPP government asked for exceptionally heavy local content requirements, it is no longer profitable to build offshore wind farms in Taiwan. But with solar already getting very mature due to land-use restraints, offshore wind is supposed to be THE bulk source of renewables available to Taiwan to try and plug the nuclear gap.

Back in the 1980s, Taipower had a 20-year rolling power generation forecast. They created their strategy balancing fuel availability, stability, demand, security and cost. Now it's clear it's politics that's in command and instead of complex long-range forecasts, Taiwan is just winging it.

I've been told that I focus too much on energy, but in truth energy is such an important topic that if an administration is failing to address it, I don't trust that administration. But everywhere I look in energy, whether its defense considerations, the stubborn insistance on the nuclear phaseout or the stalled renewables buildout, I don't see planning. Just like Chairman Tung, I see sleepwalking.