The economic situation in Asia and the Pacific as of mid-2024

It is anticipated that the economy of India will expand by 6.9 per cent in 2024 and 6.6 per cent in 2025, mainly driven by strong public investment and resilient private consumption. Although subdued external demand will continue to weigh on merchandise export growth, exports of pharmaceuticals and chemicals are expected to expand significantly.

Across South Asia , average consumer price inflation is projected to fall from 13.9 per cent in 2023 to 10.5 per cent in 2024 and 7.4 per cent in 2025 as currency depreciation pressures ease and agricultural commodity prices moderate following the expected weakening of El Niño. Consumer price inflation in India is projected to decelerate from 5.6 per cent in 2023 to 4.5 per cent in 2024, staying within the 2 to 6 per cent medium-term target range of the central bank. Similarly, inflation rates in other South Asian countries declined in 2023 and are expected to decelerate further in 2024, ranging from 2.2 per cent in Maldives to 33.6 per cent in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Despite some moderation, food prices remained elevated in the first quarter of 2024, especially in Bangladesh and India.

A special case

Western Asia represents a special case in the report under review. Against the backdrop of extended oil production cuts, escalating geopolitical tensions and trade disruptions in the Red Sea, Western Asia faces a challenging short-term economic outlook. Average GDP growth is projected to recover from an estimated 2.0 per cent in 2023 to 2.7 per cent in 2024 and 4.2 per cent in 2025. In member countries of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, economic growth has been held back by lower oil prices and reduced oil production, adversely affecting government budgets in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In contrast, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – where economic diversification efforts have been more successful – saw fiscal revenues increase in early 2024.

In Türkiye, economic growth is projected to slow down from 4.5 per cent in 2023 to 3.2 per cent in 2024. The rapid devaluation of the Turkish lira added to inflationary pressures, pushing monetary authorities to resort to tightening measures. Amid softening domestic demand, which also led to reduced imports, the current account deficit narrowed in early 2024.

Inflation is projected to gradually ease across the region. In Lebanon, the Syrian Arab Republic and Türkiye, high levels of inflation persist, whereas in Jordan, Oman and Qatar, inflation has decelerated significantly. Following the United States Federal Reserve, central banks in the member countries of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf are expected to maintain tight monetary policies to sustain their dollar pegs. Monetary easing is expected in the second half of 2024 in Jordan and Türkiye if inflationary pressures ease.

The report describes the effects of the war in Gaza which have been widespread in the region. The economy of the State of Palestine is estimated to have contracted by 30 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2023 amid an 81 per cent output decline in the Gaza Strip. The consumer price index for February 2024 increased by 27.2 per cent in the State of Palestine and by 118 per cent in the Gaza Strip, reflecting an acute cost-of-living crisis. In Israel, GDP growth slowed from 6.4 per cent in 2022 to an estimated 2 per cent in 2023 as private consumption and real estate investment sharply contracted and exports declined moderately.

Non-oil producers in the region are suffering considerable spillover effects. The tourism sector has been hit, with Jordan and Lebanon experiencing sizeable declines in arrivals. The conflict at the southern border of Lebanon has affected 30 per cent of the country's agricultural output, raising concerns about food security in the near term.

Conclusion

The consideration of the above-presented report is expected to encourage speakers from the 54 ECOSOC member states and observers to confirm, supplement, and refine the document's content using additional information from official sources.

Furthermore, ECOSOC's deliberations are anticipated to be influenced by the consultations and negotiations dedicated to finalizing the Pact for the Future, which is slated for adoption at the United Nations Summit of the Future in New York on September 22-23, 2024.

Currently, the 20-page draft (63 paragraphs) is undergoing revisions with the participation of the 193 UN member states.

It is hoped that the final official draft to be approved by the Summit will maintain its focus on the stated priority: renewing people's trust in global institutions by making them more representative of today's world and more effective in delivering on their commitments. The existing text emphasizes the need to restore faith in global governance through principles of trust, equity, solidarity, and universality. The Summit aims to renew commitments to international cooperation, striving for a transformation of global governance and strengthening the multilateral system to achieve a safer, more peaceful, just, equal, inclusive, sustainable, and prosperous world. All these aspirations are articulated in the draft Pact for the Future, which promises to be the most significant UN diplomatic document of 2024.