Sixth, Iran does not want other Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, to normalize relations with Israel, as this will open the gates of normalization of relations with most of the Arab states, as well as many Muslim countries. The US should carefully consider Saudi Arabia's four requirements in exchange for the normalization of relations with Israel: the establishment of a Palestinian state, guaranteeing the Saudis' national security, providing Riyadh with a nuclear development program for peaceful purposes, and allowing the Saudis to purchase advanced American military equipment. Reaching an agreement with Saudi Arabia based on its requirements will be the forerunner for the establishment of the allied crescent from the Gulf to the Mediterranean.
Seventh, President Biden must begin the process of establishing an independent Palestinian state, which he has continuously asserted in recent months. Hamas' October 7th attack on Israel, which led to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, reaffirmed that the occupation is not sustainable and that Israel must come to terms with the establishment of a Palestinian state, which is the missing link for the creation of the allied crescent. Beyond that, the establishment of a Palestinian state will pull the rug from underneath Iran, which has been exploiting the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the rationale behind its vehement refutation of Israel's right to exist.
To that end, the Biden administration should develop a long-term strategy designed to limit Iran's regional influence by pursuing a new regional paradigm based on what I generally outlined above. The US, which already has a massive military presence in the Middle East, must now move to expand that into a regional security alliance. Based on my research and contacts in the region, every country mentioned above welcomes such an alliance, as they see it as the cornerstone of regional stability. The US should make it clear that the new alliance is not meant to threaten Iran, and in fact, the allied states would cooperate with Tehran on regional security and develop extensive commercial ties if it chose to become a constructive player.
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To be sure, the Iranian clergy must understand that "business is not as usual." But if they need a perpetual enemy-the US and Israel-to rally the public to stay in power, they will have to be prepared to face the consequences.
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