Time to take a stand against the CCP’s economic warfare

While most forecasts see only a gradual decline in the price of iron ore and coal over the next few years, forecasts are always wrong.

BHP certainly didn't see the collapse in nickel when it was developing its Nickel West assets, and it was the Ukraine war that shook coal out of a slump most had not predicted.

Beijing is attempting to curtail Australia's dominance of iron ore exports by developing the Simandou mine in Guinea, West Africa.

The first ore is projected to be produced in 2025, although the project faces huge challenges, including building 550 kilometres of rail line, which involves 235 bridges as well as 11 kilometres of tunnels.

Beijing aims for self-sufficiency in iron, which in itself should reduce the price we receive as we will have to substitute markets.

Likewise, we have competitors in coal, and it doesn't take too much to tip the coal market into surplus and deep discount.

What is Australia's answer?

In part it relies on the concept of a "green premium," and doing critical minerals deals with other countries in our security bloc.

The "premium"-the idea that manufacturers will pay more for products with an environmentally responsible chain of production-is a mirage and can be seen nowhere in the minerals markets or reality.

Perhaps the critical minerals strategy has some legs, but it is really protectionism under another guise. The federal and Western Australian governments are suggesting royalty holidays or tax credits, both of which would be ruinously expensive for Australian governments, to keep the nickel industry alive.

The problem with protectionism is that it raises costs for everyone making the whole economy uncompetitive. BHP indicated a more competitive Australia is the solution, but the federal government is pushing us in the other direction.

Their "Closing the Loopholes" Act will make employing already well-paid staff in the mining sector even more expensive, at the same time that inflation is pushing up wage costs everywhere, flowing through to all mining inputs.

Australian governments everywhere are increasing sovereign risk. Queensland unilaterally introduced the highest taxes on coal in the world with no notice, the federal government has imposed price caps on gas producers, and coal producers have been forced to provide coal to power generators at a discounted price in New South Wales.