Population growth – a key problem of our time

The world's population continues to grow rapidly – by an astounding figure of 85 to 90 million people per year. Figuratively speaking, the world is growing by one Germany or ten Austrias per year, at least in relation to the population of these countries.

In which houses will these newly added people live, where will they get their food from, how will they be mobile, what jobs will they have (if they will have any at all)? Will they ever have the chance of (and the material means for) a fulfilling and decent life?

This growth is taking place on an already "groaning planet," on which the limits to growth have already been reached, as many indicators suggest. The ecosphere, on which we as species homo sapiens and all other species depend for survival, has already been severely affected.

The growth of the world population goes hand in hand with the various pressures on our natural environment, such as growing greenhouse gas emissions, soil consumption and consumption of mineral and biogenic resources.

It would of course be wrong to blame population growth alone for these pressures. But it would be just as wrong to ignore and play down its significance. Since the beginning of industrialization, per capita consumption of these resources has grown even faster than the world population; but both driving forces working together are exerting massively increasing pressure on the ecosphere and our planetary resource base.

It is also becoming very clear, though many or most people do not want to admit it, that technological innovations alone will not be sufficient to "save" us. For example, the energy transition, which is being seen by many as a key project for sustainable development, will not be realizable in the expected way. On closer examination, one can see that this project has too many weaknesses, dilemmas and limitations.

Ultimately, the long-term survival of mankind and a fairly good life for all can only be possible in a degrowth society, whatever political form it might take. A degrowth society means that, on the one hand, human population growth must come to an end and that, subsequently, population should even shrink to a significantly lower, more sustainable level. And, on the other hand, it means, that material consumption per capita cannot remain at the current high level, and that it must therefore also shrink significantly.

Although this reduction in per capita material consumption primarily applies to rich countries (in the so-called "global North"), it also applies to more than a few people in emerging and developing countries who have already achieved a relatively high standard of living. It holds true also because in these latter countries, the aspirations of most people after achieving a high material standard of living cannot be realized – or if it could be, then only at the high price of further damaging the local and global natural environment.

Unless we at least put a halt to population growth, and a subsequent decline in global population takes place, a sustainable, ecologically sound and just economic system cannot even be imagined. Either this shrinkage of population is brought about in a conscious and plannedway, or it happens in a disorderly, chaotic manner in the form of collapsing societies.

It is no coincidence that many conflicts and wars take place in regions where population has been growing almost unchecked for a long time. The Middle East conflict, that has recently again heated up, also has a strong demographic component, even if this is not the focus of media reports and analyses.

Like so many things in the world, population dynamics too differ strongly from region to region. While there are some regions that have already undergone a demographic transition, i.e. where the population is no longer growing or may even be declining, there are other regions where population is still growing massively and a demographic transition is not in sight.

Sub-Saharan Africa is a particular hotspot in this regard. UN forecasts say that the population in this region will at least triple by 2100 (unless something is done about that). Considering the instability and the multitude of problems that already exist in this large region, this prospect of a population multiplication in the coming decades can only be understood as a demographic catastrophe, a catastrophe that the international community is virtually watching helplessly.