Israel-Palestine: four scenarios

In recent decades, especially since the 1979 Iranian Revolution, Islam has become the dominant force in Iranian and Arab political movements. The name "Hamas" comes from the initials of the Islamic Resistance Movement (formed in 1987). Hamas hates the secular PLO, and it fought a brief war against Fatah in 2007 to gain control over Gaza.

Therefore, the disputes between Israel and Palestine are not only over land but also religious interpretation. When it comes to war, truth is the first casualty and God is the first recruit.

The third scenario is the "two state solution". This was first proposed in 1937, when the UK controlled Palestine on behalf of the Leage of Nations as a "mandate". Jews were fleeing Hitler's Europe and some sought refuge in Palestine, which gave rise to social tensions with the Arab population. The British idea was to create two separate countries for the two peoples. A pattern was established: Jews accepted the idea but the Arabs rejected it.

After World War II the UK passed the problem over to the new United Nations, which revived the proposal. The idea has been revived at various times since then but all to no avail.

It is technically still on the table but no party to the conflict is making any serious attempt to revive it. Each time it is revived, there is less land offered to the Palestinians. Hamas is opposed to it entirely.

In the meantime, memories of the 2005 evacuation of the Gaza strip would deter any Israeli politician from creating a two-state solution. In 2005 Israel decided to remove the 8,000 Jewish settlers living in 21 settlements from Gaza, and so pave the way for very limited Palestinian self-government. It was a brutal military operation with many settlers initially refusing to leave.

The West Bank has about 390,000 Jewish settlers, a much larger number. They will not leave voluntarily. Any hard action against them would split any Israeli government that contained the representative of those settlers.

The final scenario is called "milk and honey", a phrase I have taken from the Old Testament (such as Exodus 3.8). This is an optimistic scenario whereby Israelis and Palestinians somehow find a way of living together peacefully.

Reconciliation between former bitter enemies can take place. Australia and Japan had a very difficult relationship in World War II but Japan eventually became a major trading partner of Australia, and it is now becoming a military ally to confront the Chinese threat. Similarly, France and Germany had fought each other for centuries – and triggered two World Wars - and now are firm allies. Nothing in impossible.

All four scenarios encourage us to think about the unthinkable, and so reflect on the wider dimensions of the current conflict.