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2023 Hamas' brutal attack could have been avoided.

By Alon Ben-Meir - posted Wednesday, 11 October 2023


Hamas' Brutal Attack Could Have Been Avoided

I certainly join the voices of many leaders who condemned Hamas' attack in the strongest terms. That said, I am not as surprised as many that this attack in fact has taken place and claimed the lives of so many innocent Israelis, nor will I be surprised by the ongoing Israeli retaliation that will certainly claim the lives of hundreds if not thousands of Palestinians, including many innocent civilians. I'm not surprised because, like many of us who have been following the development of events between Israel and the Palestinians in the last few years, especially the past several months, I easily came to the conclusion, and stated so a number of times in my writing, that it was only a question of time when such a flare-up would take place.

I wrote the following paragraph just over a year ago (originally published on October 2, 2022), which has tragically come to pass in the last couple of days.

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"The danger that all concerned parties seem to overlook is that although on the surface the status quo between Israel and the Palestinians may prevail for a little longer, say three-to-four years, it cannot be sustained for much beyond that. It is bound to explode in the face of everyone who does not realize the urgency and the dire consequences in the absence of a solution. Indeed, it is not a matter of if but when the Palestinians will rise and resort to violence, making the second Intifada in 2000 look like a mere rehearsal. And the Israelis who have been living in denial will sooner rather than later have to face the bitter truth. The Palestinian problem will not go away; it will continue to haunt them and offer no respite. Moreover, the conflict with the Palestinians will continue to provide Israel's staunchest enemy, Iran, and its proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon, the perfect recipe they need to destabilize the region and constantly threaten Israel's national security. And whereas Israel can prevail militarily over any of its enemies, albeit at an increasing toll in blood and treasure, it cannot stop the most dangerous threat of all-the deadly erosion, resulting from its continuing brutal occupation, of that moral foundation on which the country was established."

This unprecedented and unimaginable attack by Hamas, from the land, air, and sea, must have taken months to plan, train, and prepare for execution. And yet Israel's 'most sophisticated' intelligence agencies did not detect even a hint of such a devastating plan. What does that say about the Israeli government, led by an arrogant and self-conceited prime minister, Netanyahu, who brags about Israel's unmatched military capabilities and preparedness?

While Netanyahu was busy plotting to crush Israel's democracy through his so-called judicial reforms, and reinforcing Israel's security in the West Bank by sending thousands of troops to protect the settlers who have been rampaging against the Palestinians, Hamas was preparing for this deadly attack on an unprecedented scale, claiming the lives of, as of this writing, 700 Israelis and abducting over 100, while exposing Israel's vulnerability in the eyes of its strongest enemies, including Hezbollah and Iran.

The timing of Hamas' attack obviously was not accidental. It was planned to take place exactly on the 50th anniversary of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. It was meant to crudely remind the Israelis that the Palestinians' rights and aspirations are not a box to be checked off, as Netanyahu recently described when asked about the prospective normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

No Israeli could have possibly believed that a so-called 'ragtag group' with 'firecrackers,' as some Israeli officials have described Hamas, that has been under blockade for 18 years, would be in a position to mount an attack of such magnitude, sending tens of thousands of Israelis to shelters, cowering in fear. For decades the Israeli government has led the public to believe that the Palestinians will not cease their fight for independence unless Israel enacts brutal force against them. This attack has proven this claim false; that even under the harshest circumstances the Palestinians will never give up their fight for freedom and independence by answering violence with violence, and will never succumb to Israeli forces.

The current Israeli government, whose minister in charge of civilian affairs in the West Bank, Bezalel Smotrich, called earlier this year for wiping out the Palestinian village of Huwara and has given free reign to settlers to harass Palestinians at every turn, did nothing but usurp the last vestiges of hope for the Palestinians to be free again. To treat the Palestinians as if they are the occupier rather than being occupied, as Smotrich has claimed, is not only outrageous but self-defeating, as has been proven over the last 75 years. For Saturday's brutal attack by Hamas to occur under the watch of the most militant government in Israel's history has only proven its ineptitude and that ignoring the Palestinian problem will happen at Israel's peril.

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Hamas knew too well that the people of Gaza would suffer massive losses of life and destruction for attacking Israel on such an unprecedented scale. The extent of the casualties and destruction inflicted by Israel already attests to that. They have nevertheless taken such a deadly but calculated risk because they were determined to change the dynamic of the conflict with Israel and create a new paradigm and force Israel to reevaluate its position toward the Palestinians. I found it interesting that Hamas' spokesperson didn't call for Israel's destruction but rather called for an end to violations against Palestinians, stating "We want the international community to stop atrocities in Gaza, against Palestinian people, our holy sites like Al-Aqsa. All these things are the reason behind starting this battle." This is in response to the provocateur Itamar Ben-Gvir, who since he assumed the position of National Security Minister, has deliberately visited the Temple Mount, which by a 1967 agreement between Jordan and Israel, Jews have been barred from visiting.

Whereas Hamas' militant wing, the Al-Qassam Brigades, has never reconciled itself with Israel's existence and must be destroyed, Israel should send a clear message that it is willing to initiate peace negotiations with moderate Palestinian leaders to create a long-term reconciliation process that will lead to a permanent solution. It is time for Israel to realize that the policy of going to Gaza to 'mow the lawn' every few years has failed miserably and accomplished nothing but deepen their resistance. The recent horrifying attack attests to this perilously misguided Israeli policy.

Although Israel has every right to defend itself and crush the irredeemable Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorists, who are backed by Iran and Hezbollah and will not accept Israel's reality, Israel must also remember that the vast majority of the Palestinian people want to live in peace, and accept Israel's right to exist. Sadly though, extremist governments such as the current one led by Netanyahu, portray the Palestinians as if they were all terrorists and can never be trusted; hence, they must be handled with an iron fist.

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About the Author

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

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