Population growth: context in a few critical graphs

Let's now look at Southeast Queensland. The latest revision of the SEQ Regional Plan includes some updates of population projections together with some forecast job increases (which are promised to be reviewed). Putting the population and jobs growth into the same graph allows us to see that there is an apparent imbalance between areas that are predicted to grow the most in terms of population, but which are not anointed with comparable jobs growth. This will invariably mean that more people will need to commute greater distances for work than if jobs were provided closer to where they are expected to live.

A closer drill down into the detail comes from the Queensland Government Statistician's Office, which released detailed population projects in June 2023. This graph shows where within the inner city of Brisbane the population is expected to change, and by how much, in the 2021-2046 period.

This is the same graph but showing the percentage increases. This graph is helpful to understand the speed and scale of growth by small area. The CBD (Brisbane City) for example is expected to grow by 160%, while other areas will more than double.

This is an image of 443 Queen Street – which when completed will provide 264 apartments. If we allow a modest 10% vacancy rate (apartments locked up by owners and not available for letting), and multiply the balance by a conservative 1.6 people on average per apartment (we are told there will be many more single person households so there could be less than 1.6 in the future), that gives a total population for this tower of 380 people. With Brisbane's CBD predicted to grow by 22,500 people (see graph above) that means we will need the equivalent of 60 more of these in the CBD for those predictions to have effect.

Last one! Here are the regional population predictions for 2021-2046. This graph shows the forecast increases in population by region. I have added a couple of lines to show how these predicted increases compare to the current populations of Rockhampton and Ipswich, just for context.

So, what did you conclude? Some will be excited by the infrastructure challenge. We need not only houses, but schools, hospitals, libraries, water, energy, roads, parks and open space and more. Plus workplaces of course. And protection of the environment.

Others will worry that, if we struggle to find houses for people and with tent cities popping up around the region, we should slow this rate of growth. Longer hospital wait lists, growing school class sizes, rising congestion, environmental pressures – these could be some of the things we should try avoid they will say.

Others again will question the numbers themselves. Some of these predictions seem to lack a reality check. Can we even find, for example, sites for 60 more towers like 443 Queen Street in the CBD? Let alone what many of the other numbers will require in terms of sites for housing, for schools, workplaces, hospitals, and the rest across the region.

It's important that predictions like those contained in these numbers are fully understood for context and impact. More than anything else, they will reshape the regions and cities in which we live.

They are however just predictions based on public policy settings and expectations. They are not fate.