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The US and the EU need a new roadmap to solve the Serbia-Kosovo conflict

By Alon Ben-Meir - posted Tuesday, 20 June 2023


Third, as a prospective EU member, Kurti should demonstrate considerable sensitivity regarding the West's concerns over the stability of the Balkans, especially now due to the war in Ukraine and Putin's determination to do everything he can to destabilize the region and engage the West in another volatile front.

Fourth, however distrustful Kurti is of Vucic, he must learn to deal with him and demonstrate to the EU that he will always negotiate in good faith. He should not allow any failure in the negotiating process to be attributed to him while enhancing his credibility with the EU, which is central to advancing Kosovo's integration.

Fifth, Kurti ought to pay far greater attention to his domestic affairs. He ought to progressively meet the EU's socio-economic, educational, cultural, and human rights standards. He should weed out corruption, encourage foreign investments, create jobs to prevent the brain drain which is hampering Kosovo's growth and progress, invest in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and housing, and tend to the needs of the poor, especially children.

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Since Kurti has cast Kosovo's fate with the EU, he must now demonstrate that Pristina is worthy of EU membership, because, regardless of when that might happen, its voice will be equal to that of France, Germany, Italy, and every other member state. This will be an incredible feat for Kosovo, which also carries an awesome responsibility. His standing with the EU and the US is currently questionable; the burden is on him to prove that he is trustworthy and has the leadership quality, the acumen, and the skills to live up to the call of the hour.

The EU on its part should offer Kosovo a framework for its prospective integration by reciprocating Pristina's commitment to follow EU guidelines and condition the process of integration to the progress that Kosovo makes on all fronts. The areas where Kosovo wants to realize important gains and where the EU and the US can play a critical role include the following:

Membership in international organizations; Recognition of its independence by the five EU states that have not yet recognized Kosovo-Romania, Cyprus, Greece, Spain, and Slovakia; Opening a dialogue with the EU in connection with the integration process; Exerting pressure on and/or persuading Vucic to fully implement the Franco-German agreement, which is central to the reconciliation process between the two countries.

In dealing with Vucic, the EU is fully aware that unlike Kurti, by virtue of his connection to Putin, Vucic is not as free to act transparently to advance Serbia's integration with the EU. But given Serbia's aspiration to become an EU member state, he has to come around and accept the inevitability of coexistence with an independent Kosovo.

Vucic must stop defying and denying Kosovo's independence publicly, knowing that its independence is irreversible. He must stop instigating ethnic Serbs in Kosovo to rebel against Pristina as he has recently done following the elections in the three Serb-dominated municipalities.

He should slowly and gradually distance himself from Russia and be reminded of Moscow's growing international isolation, its military failures in Ukraine, and its much-diminished global stature and power; it is becoming an uncertain ally on whom he cannot depend.

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Moreover, Vucic should actively persuade the Serbs in the north of Kosovo to return to the institutions and play a constructive role to stabilize the area. He should sign and fully adhere to the Franco-German agreement to enhance his credibility, which presently is in tatters. Vucic should also should take steps to normalize relations with Kosovo by reaching interim agreements regarding water distribution from Lake Ujmani and mining at Trepça Mine, expanding trade, and encouraging cultural ties, student exchanges, and more.

Although these activities do not constitute recognition of Kosovo, they will prepare the Serbian public psychologically for such an eventuality, especially once Putin departs the political scene.

In return, the EU should offer Serbia a roadmap that would lead to full integration and open up a dialogue towards that end. The EU should also develop and agree on a quid pro quo so that Vucic will know what he might receive in return for any concession he makes. This includes compliance to the provision of any accord, verbal or otherwise, especially the Franco-German agreement which is crucial to bring an end to the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo.

Since for the EU and the US, solving the Serbian-Kosovar conflict is critical to the stability of the Balkans, they should change the dynamic of the conflict between Belgrade and Pristina by offering a roadmap to integration with the EU that both countries aspire for.

It is now up to Vucic and Kurti to either squander the prospect of becoming an integral part of the European community, or work together, seize the opportunity, and enjoy the growth, prosperity, and security accorded to all member states of the EU.

 

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About the Author

Dr. Alon Ben-Meir is a professor of international relations at the Center for Global Affairs at NYU. He teaches courses on international negotiation and Middle Eastern studies.

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