From deputy sheriff to lone ranger: the loneliness of the US alliance

Reaching a geo-political tipping point

Some US allies now question whether the Ukraine war was really necessary, and are feeling the consequences of enforcing US sanctions against Russia. The recent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin last month, reached agreements upon many issues.

Both presidents agreed to using a digital Yuan as an international settlement currency. The digital Yuan is anchored to gold and other commodities, and the mBridge system facilitating international payments is growing as an alternative to the SWIFT banking system. The digital Yuan, together with mBridge, is a viable alternative to the US Dollar, as an international trade currency.

Coupled with the BRICS trade grouping, and the Belt and Road Initiative, the patterns of trade are changing, and growing rapidly along new trade routes. This will undermine the primacy of the US currency, where countries will no longer need to buy US Dollars to trade.

With agreements in Europe, and the US to drastically lower their reliance on oil, with green initiatives, Saudi Arabia is worried about the future oil exports to the West. Recently, Saudi Arabia agreed to settle sales of oil with the digital Yuan. Saudi Arabia has also signed a military cooperation agreement with Russia, and made a formal application to join BRICS. The Saudi oil company Aramco is now focusing upon the Chinese market, which they are investing in, and diverting oil from the its traditional customers.

The Australian dilemma

The US policy of containment is seen as an aggressive posture within the region by China. Australia’s membership of The QUAD, and the formation of AUKUS last year, has committed Australia to pursue the containment doctrine against China. This is seen as a hostile act, just as the US saw the placement of missiles in Cuba back in October 1962.

This puts Australia at odds with South East Asian nations, which are enjoying the China dividend, and resolving their differences through diplomacy, regional cooperation, investment, trade, and a massive wave of Chinese tourism.

Australia has affirmed its affinity within the Anglophile world, symbolised by AUKUS and the ‘Five Eyes’. This position was good for the middle of last century, but doesn’t have the same relevance to Australia today. This is isolating Australia from other countries in its own region. Australia needs to be imaginative and innovative within this part of the world. Australia must couple itself to the region, and not pretend it is a ‘middle power’ anymore. It’s not.

Some military forces in the region are no much more equipped and suited for confrontation within the region, rather than trying to project themselves. Many of the weapons of war are now non-military, which ASEAN countries have an understanding.

Australian relationships with its neighbours are still very much within the realm of being seen in transactional terms by Canberra. Putting high priorities on equity and funding LGBTQ in neighbouring countries, are being read as interference in the affairs of those countries. These issues are best left to NGOs.

Even with US bases on Australian soil, they don’t have significant capabilities to fend off aggression, should there be any. The only way Australia can defend itself is to integrate its limited forces with its neighbours. An old saying in Asia goes something like ‘your neighbours are your walls’. Australia was better off back in the 1960s, when under SEATO it had aircraft and troops stationed in the region. These are all gone, together with the cooperation that went with the deployments.