NSW election a bleak choice between flat white and a latte

This Liberal government in its four iterations has been in power for 12 years since winning the 2011 election with an unprecedented 64.22 per cent of the 2PP vote. Two of its premiers have resigned as a result of scandals, and Dominic Perrottet has only been in power around 12 months.

At each election votes have leached away, and worse, some elected members have been forced to the crossbench as a result of scandal.

While voters in our polling still talk about Labor Party corruption, it's well in the past, and the Coalition bears its own burdens, particularly those associated with the name Barilaro, which taint not just the former Nationals' leader, but the current premier, who as former treasurer, is implicated in allegations of pork-barrelling.

Voters don't feel too strongly about either leader. Labor's Chris Minns is comparatively unknown, and has been playing a small target campaign, à la Anthony Albanese, so is likely to stay that way until after the election, or until the Liberals target him with advertising.

Perrottet is better known but confuses voters. He was initially greeted with suspicion in the inner-city, and welcomed out in the burbs and regions, because of his conservative but mainstream Christianity. However, the inner-city view has softened as a result of things like flying the Aboriginal flag on the Harbour Bridge, and allowing a conscience vote on euthanasia.

While Perrottet comes from the right, he has governed from the centre, or even the centre-left, which is attributed by some voters to his deputy Matt Kean. Kean evokes some concern, and One Nation is likely to try to capitalise on this. Kean's deep green credentials also take climate change out of the equation as a battleground issue.

The issues are pretty clear. They are housing affordability (and cost of living more generally), climate change, infrastructure, funding of schools and hospitals, energy and gaming.

Perrottet's "Future fund" for kids is a desperate attempt to find a winner on cost of living and housing affordability. I have no polling, but I also have no doubt, this will damage his credibility, in a similar way the overly generous parental leave scheme damaged Tony Abbott's.

It's a plan for the government to partner with parents to build an up to $49,000 nest egg for their kids by their 18th birthday. Sounds great, until you realise the promise is really paid for by the parents' contributions and the recipients' future taxes.

Bribes have become a way to the citizen's vote, but not to their heart, and this from a man who claims to be a classical liberal. You can feel voters peeling off on the right.

Minns is running on anti-privatisation. It's a pitch to the faithful, as well as drawing attention to the increases in costs, and the running down of services. It doesn't solve the cost-of-living problem, but it provides a focus for blame.

It also eats away at infrastructure, which is one of the Coalition's strengths. Over the last 12 years they have privatised over $55 billion of assets, and that money is being poured into infrastructure.