Indonesian and Malaysian concerns over AUKUS

Some commentators believe, this is going to stimulate an arms race within the region, where the waters around Australia will now see much more activity by Chinese vessels surveilling AUKUS submarine arrivals and departures.

Australia's concerned neighbors

Although many Australians support the AUKUS initiative, governments, think tanks, and academics around the region have differing opinions on the Chinese threat. Countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and the rest of ASEAN have lived with Chinese presence for over a thousand years. They tend to take a very even-handed approach to superpower rivalry within the region.

Indonesia, a day after the AUKUS San Diego meeting said 'Indonesia has been closely following the security partnership of AUKUS, particularly the announcement on the pathway to achieve AUKUS critical capability. Maintaining the peace and stability of the region is the responsibility of all countries. It is critical for all countries to be part of the effort'.

The Indonesian foreign ministry went on further to express their concern that nuclear weapons may in the future enter the AUKUS agenda with its statement 'Indonesia expects Australia to remain consistent in fulfilling its obligations under the NPT and IAEA safeguards, as well as develop a verification mechanism that is effective, and transparent'.

Malaysia's new prime minister Anwar Ibrahim reinforced the previous government's stand on the AUKUS agreement. A Foreign Ministry press statement said that Malaysia maintains its policy and wants all parties to fully respect and comply with the existing regime in relations to the operation of nuclear powered submarines in Malaysia's waters. These include the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone Treaty, and the ASEAN Declaration on the Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality.

Malaysia further highlights the importance of promoting transparency and confidence building among all countries and reframing from any provocation that could potentially trigger an arms race or affect peace and stability in the region.

Cold War getting hotter

Comments from both Beijing and Washington are becoming much more aggressive in recent weeks, with talk from the US about war as being not just a probability, but a real possibility. While China has not ruled out taking Taiwan by military force, the US appears to be abandoning its doctrine of strategic ambiguity over Taiwan. China views US bases in the region as encirclement, the Monroe Doctrine in reverse.

However, China sees war in a different way to the US. The Belt and Road Initiative is bringing China closer to Russia, Central Asia, the MENA, and Europe in trade. China is beginning to play a diplomatic role in the Russia-Ukraine war, and China is abandoning the US Dollar as a means of trade.

Most importantly, AUKUS has ruffled Australia's neighbors' feathers. It's clear by Indonesian and Malaysian statements, that prime minister Albanese didn't brief these countries in advance. This is a loss of face for both Indonesia and Malaysia. Without the cooperation of Indonesia, the transit of Australian nuclear submarines to the South China Sea will be just that little more difficult.

Albanese may have had a good time mixing with Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden in San Diego. Albanese now has to repair the diplomatic damage done last week with his neighbours. China won this round of diplomacy, and Australia didn't even see it.