Asean at the crossroads: centrifugal forces in Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos, and the Philippines spell trouble

Washington often blames Asean for its failure to forge a united stand in response to China’s territorial ambitions in South China and in response to military rule and human rights violations in Myanmar. While the accusation is valid the Asean member states are in no mood to provoke China, the strongest permanent neighbor.

Similarly, overall, the Asean countries are terrified by the US policy to station nuclear weapons in the Indo Pacific region via its Australia, United Kingdom, and US (AUKUS) military program which it insists as necessary to deter China. Some member nations in fact view the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the region as more dangerous than the military threat from China, given that the threat of proliferation would change the balance of power equation and would go against what Asean has championed for through its Nuclear- Weapons Free Zone Treaty since 1995.

The way forward for Asean is to strengthen its internal cohesion by putting the house in order. The centrifugal tendencies may gain strength overtime that would erode the confidence in Asean as a regional organisation. One authority on ASEAN lamented some time ago that “unless member states can put their common causes above their narrow internal political interests, global powers such as China, India and the US will continue to run roughshod over their agenda.”

B A Hamzah is a Senior Research Fellow at the Center for Defense and International Studies, National Defense University Malaysia in Kuala Lumpur

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