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Impact of the 2023 China balloon incident

By Chin Jin - posted Wednesday, 8 February 2023

The present world is running fast towards dark times and chaos, the prospects are getting grimmer, and the road is getting more and more dangerous.

The bias of the US policy toward China determines the development, evolution, and even the survival of the two regimes on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

The power balance and mutual relationship between the two regimes on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are very similar to the relationship between wolves and sheep. There is no reason for wolves to eat sheep, as long as they meet the hunger of wolves.


The most favorable time for the CCP to rule Taiwan by force was when China and the United States established diplomatic relations in 1979. At that time, the Carter Administration basically sacrificed Taiwan as a lamb, and threw it to Beijing to swallow. It was because Beijing was busy showing favor to the United States and the West, and took Vietnam first; Beijing's inability to deal with Taiwan at the same time is like not having enough space in its mouth to stuff in more things to chew!

The results of the 2022 US midterm elections can be said to be a faint light on the path that the world is heading towards darkness.

The new US Speaker of the Congress McCarthy announced that he will visit Taiwan soon. What is even more eye-catching is the visit of the former US President Trump joining his delegation. This trip is tantamount to a blow to Beijing's fate, pushing the CCP into a diplomatic dead corner.

Beijing has already responded: "The Taiwan issue is the core of China's core interests, the political foundation of Sino-US relations, and an insurmountable red line in Sino-US relations. The US should not try to break through this red line at any time." Originally, Washington's balance was leaning toward Beijing, heavily depending on Beijing's face. But this is not fear of Beijing, but a misreading of bilateral relations, wrongly magnifying Beijing, and wrongly dwarfing itself! McCarthy's move corrected his own position, and corrected his perspective.

The US let go of the CCP twice: First from the Civil War between the KMT and the Communist Party to the outbreak of the Korean War. The second time was when the US and China established diplomatic relations in 1979. During other periods, the US kept a watchful eye on the CCP's wolf-like outbreaks. Today, the United States has undergone fundamental changes in its handling of cross-strait relations. The first condition for the CCP to win Taiwan is to be able to defeat the United States.

There is no possibility of this at all. The CCP's occupation of Taiwan through military strikes, bypassing US intervention, can only be a time for the US to snooze. There have indeed been two times in history when the US acted, and the CCP lost both times. Will there be new opportunities in the future? The unexpected spy balloon incident will completely deprive the CCP of any future opportunities.


Since the founding of the United States, the mainland has been attacked and invaded twice: One was the Pearl Harbor incident, and the other was the "9/11" incident. The consequences have already been concluded. Japan was completely defeated and cannot become a normal country again so far; Osama bin Laden in hiding was wanted and shot dead by the US military ten years later. This time the CCP spy balloon appeared in the United States, which is not an attack, but at least an obvious intrusion. It is normal for major countries to use spies to obtain information, but it should not be caught red-handed.

This matter will put a layer of security over CCP-coveted Taiwan, and the chances of Taiwan being attacked by the CCP will be greatly reduced. Originally, the CCP's attack on Taiwan was to take advantage of the napping of the United States; but now, the United States has to greatly increase its awareness of the severity of the CCP's threat. First of all, Blinken's planned visit to China was put immediately on hold. Beijing has embarked from their "wolf warrior diplomacy" image change, replacing it with "panda diplomacy" efforts to reconcile with the US. and the West turned in an instant into nothing, and it was all in vain.

Of course, Taiwan should not sit back and relax because of this, and the alarm bells must continue to ring, until the CCP is completely disintegrated under the influence of various changes and forces, before everyone can finally breathe a sigh of relief. Before that, the CCP will still be struggling and plotting till its demise, and will most likely even launch the Taiwan Strait war before it is on the verge of death. And it will pull in an easy target, to be ruined together, when that time is near.


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About the Author

Dr Chin Jin is a maverick, activist, campaigner, essayist, freelancer, researcher and organizer with the vision to foresee a new post-Chinese Communist regime era that will present more cooperatively, more constructively and more appropriately to the Asia Pacific region and even the world.

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