Atmospheric carbon dioxide and base-load electricity

Energy Economics

Cheap and reliable energy underlies our standard of living. We have fossil fuels and nuclear with nuclear fusion still in research (nuclear fusion does not create the dangerous waste of fission but controlling the reaction has not yet been achieved). In the past cheap energy was provided by slaves and horses, like the Egyptians, the Romans and others used. Intermittent renewables have niche markets but as yet don't adequately replace fossil nor nuclear for baseload, despite the political rhetoric, on the basis of their unreliability (vagaries of the weather) and the lack of economically viable large-scale storage. Development of economically viable large-scale storage of electricity, if or when it occurs, would be a game changer.

The last time we had significant inflation was due to the oil price shocks of the 1970s. We are now facing significant hikes in energy prices for a variety of reasons, including the phasing out of coal-fired power stations and a policy of replacing them with energy from renewable sources. It is unfounded misinformation to glibly say that renewables are an adequate replacement for fossil fuels for base-load power when there is no clear evidence to support this assertion. Although the evidence is strong that there is an anthropogenic contribution to accumulation of CO₂ in the atmosphere leading to atmospheric heating, the increase would appear not large enough to be leading to a catastrophe in the near future but nevertheless large scale emissions do need to be reduced without delay and eventually halted. The phasing out of petroleum power will increase the demand for electricity. Changeover to electric vehicles would significantly increase demand for electricity.

Some Implications

Phasing out fossil fuels is essential but let us do it in a timely and sensible way and replace them with cheap and reliable generation sources when found. Nuclear is the only option at the present time for large scale cheap, reliable baseload electricity generation without increasing the potentially dangerous anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions on the surface of the planet.

Australia is not in a good relative position. We have made nuclear illegal and it is the only real replacement option for reliable base-load generation available at this time. We have not made provision for a change in base-load electricity generation for when the ageing coal-fired power stations are no longer operational. To build a significant base-load generation plant of whatever kind optimistically takes 5 years and we are not preparing for this, while phasing out coal-fired generators. Solar and wind power have their niche markets but until large-scale storage becomes a viable economic option they are not suitable for base-load power.

The main implication of this is that Australia, with its focus now on wind and solar will have expensive and somewhat unreliable electricity during the next decade and beyond. This will in turn reduce our standard of living and our competitiveness in the global market as well as the real possibility of residential blackouts during peak loads. It should also be noted that most solar panels are made in China and we need to reduce our dependence on that country for strategic goods, such as in the construction of electricity generating infrastructure.

Discussion

Cheap and reliable energy underpins our standard of living. Large scale CO₂ emissions make a contribution to surface warming of the planet. Although there seems no reason to panic about an immediate atmospheric catastrophe it is still necessary to reduce and even eliminate CO₂ emissions and not disturb natural processes.

However, unless there is a concerted global move in this direction, the effort will be wasted if a significant part of the world population does not contribute and instead continues emitting CO₂ unconstrained. There are no national boundaries for national CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere. Any CO₂ emitted from anywhere becomes a part of the CO₂ in a shared atmosphere.

Developing energy technologies to replace fossil and developing nuclear, while limiting carbon emissions, should be a priority and in the meantime, using nuclear generation is an option.

Whatever changes are in motion in the weather, it must be remembered that there is nothing magical or permanent about the complex present dynamic state of equilibrium of our planet's atmosphere, whether we like it or not. It is a common misconception that climate will remain constant if not for us. It is fundamentally unstable as volcanic eruptions and mass extinction of species has shown. Sea levels have changed even in human history. The climate has been changing for the last 4,500 million years or ever since the Earth became a separate entity and will continue to do so with our without human intervention. The environment in which we live is a very complex dynamic system of equilibrium and our understanding of it is far from complete, although we have advanced a lot since when we believed the Earth was flat.