Mission accomplished? Labor and the climate wars

Remember in 2003 after the US and its Coalition allies invaded Iraq, swiftly sweeping aside its defenders and toppling the Saddam Hussein regime in a matter of weeks through the use of 'shock and awe', that then President George W. Bush Jnr was quick to declare the Second Gulf War "Mission accomplished".

Yet the US and its allies were soon to find that the war was not over. Only that it had merely changed. For the next 8 years the US-led Coalition was to be bogged down a messy, protracted and costly conflict.

History is littered with such examples.

Having secured the passing of its Climate Change Bill through both houses of Parliament thanks to support from the Greens, who hold the balance of power in the Senate, the newly minted Albanese Labor government is keen to declare the 'Climate Wars' over.

However, Albanese and his cabinet would do well to heed the lessons of history in its rush to make such a declaration. If anything, the Climate Wars are only just starting to heat up and move into a new and perhaps more dangerous phase - politically dangerous that is, for the government.

The reason for this is obvious. The path to achieving 43 per cent cut in emissions on 2005 levels by 2030 and net zero emissions by 2050 is not clear cut. Nor will it be easy or cost-free, despite claims by the Government and others.

The Albanese Government will need to bridge the vast gulf between its wishful and uber-optimistic rhetoric on climate and energy and the physical and material realities of modern world. This may prove to be a bridge too far.

The Greens already have signalled their intention to harass the Government at every opportunity to secure even deeper cuts, faster and harder, while also stopping new coal and gas developments.

Nor does legislation guarantee anything. Canada, Germany, and New Zealand have all legislated targets in one form or another. But these nations have made little progress in reducing their emissions, despite ratcheting up their targets time and again, to much applause.

Speaking on ABC's Radio National in February this year, Cambridge University's Professor of Political Economy Helen Thompson, author of the book Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, made this point regarding the transition to net zero by 2050.

The Governments that have introduced commitments to net zero by 2050 haven't thus far presented that to their citizens in a way that allows their citizens to see what an enormous change it will be and it will quite likely, particularly in western democracies, require sacrifice.

Professor Thompson went on to say that:

I am not really convinced that politicians want to prepare citizens for the kind of choices that lie ahead. Energy…we all depend on it, every day of our lives, every hour of our lives in some sense. And if we say actually we are going to try largely to eliminate the energy sources on which material life as we know it has gone on for a long time now…its quite hard to find words to describe what scale of change that will be.

Vaclav Smil, a Canadian-Czech energy polymath, echoes this sentiment, if not more bluntly:

…non-carbon energies could completely displace fossil carbon in a matter of one to three decades ONLY if we were willing to take substantial cuts to the standard of living in all affluent countries and deny the modernizing nations of Asia and Africa improvements in their collective lots by even a fraction of what China has done since 1980.

This is why we are seeing grassroot movements spring up in resistance to some of the most aggressive (and utopian) climate policies being enacted by government. Think the Gilet Jaunes in France in 2018 regarding Macron's fuel tax. Or more recently Dutch farmers protesting plans requiring nitrogen emissions to be slashed. Or the mess that is now Sri Lanka.

Let's also not forget the growing opposition to renewable energy and supporting transmission line projects around the world such as in Germany, the US and even in Australia. (See AusNet in Victoria; Wind Projects in Tasmania and Queensland).

Like in other parts of the world, much of this resistance will be initially in regional and rural areas - in what has been derogatorily termed as "fly over country" by some. Places that have the most to lose, should Government promises not eventuate or at least not in the form originally intended.

For the Coalition, especially the Nationals, the politics should be obvious. Especially given the many questions that remain unanswered on the how and what of achieving these targets. And more importantly, who will be most adversely affected. Perhaps the Coalition's recent tentative steps towards embracing nuclear energy signals a break from the me-too politics and attempt recast an alternative approach to climate and energy. Time will tell.

So in summary, no the 'Climate Wars' are not over. This is not a "Mission Accomplish" moment for Prime Minister Albanese and Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen. In the words of the great British statesman and wartime prime minister, Winston Churchill:

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.