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Zero net emissions = zero net energy

By Geoff Carmody - posted Wednesday, 10 August 2022


Plants get a big rap these days. More trees, please.

Photosynthesis is our saviour, it's claimed. Not so fast.

  • The harvesting equipment for collecting naturally photosynthesised energy is both extensive and expensive.
  • What does the full emissions supply chain science say about plants as a net negative emissions industry option?
  • It takes considerable time to put into place anyway. We have little aggregate control over plant growth rates.
  • If natural photosynthesis is the answer, can we see the objective evidence?
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To achieve ZNE, the globe faces a 'green' dilemma.

More plants are needed so photosynthesis absorbs 'excess' greenhouse gases like CO2, producing more oxygen in exchange.

  • Forest clearing, etc, therefore must not only stop, but be reversed. At present the opposite seems the case.
  • Development and living standards aspirations prevent cessation/reversal of forest clearing, and net new planting.
  • Globally, population growth continues, reinforcing living standards aspirational pressures, and associated resource demands.
  • Reducing global emissions therefore entails reducing – even stopping – total economic and per capita income growth.
  • Politicians hoping to win/hold their seats won't like dealing with this dilemma.
  • They deny it. They say there's a climate 'free lunch': cheaper 24/7 energy based on more – even 100% – renewables.
  • The international emissions reduction tactic of 'pass the parcel' to other countries may also continue.

Today, power consumers are being 'gas lit'. Not by AEMO or the ACCC. By others.

What if:

i. ZNE is achieved by 2050, 2060, or whenever.

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ii. ZNE in practice also requires zero net energy (ZNE)?

ZNE means any energy plus emissions therefrom (gross) due to human activity must be offset by emissions-negative human activities.

How? Can we have a science-based answer, not political assertions, to this basic, practical, question? Technology will help reduce net emissions growth. Will ZNE policies eliminate their growth? Is ZNE a 'hospital pass' for ZNE2 in future?

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About the Author

Geoff Carmody was a director of Geoff Carmody & Associates, a former co-founder of Access Economics, and before that was a senior officer in the Commonwealth Treasury. He died on October 27, 2024. He favoured a national consumption-based climate policy, preferably using a carbon tax to put a price on carbon. He has prepared papers entitled Effective climate change policy: the seven Cs. Paper #1: Some design principles for evaluating greenhouse gas abatement policies. Paper #2: Implementing design principles for effective climate change policy. Paper #3: ETS or carbon tax?

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Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

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