Our closest neighbour on the brink of being a 'failed state' after deeply flawed national elections

As polling, and counting, in Papua New Guinea's national elections drags on, our closest neighbour is desperately close to having a significant number of seats declared "failures" at the conclusion of counting.

These are dark and desperate times for a country where five yearly national elections are at the very heart of its normally robust parliamentary democracy.

In each of the elections since Independence in 1975 there were flaws - rolls that were not updated, destruction of ballot boxes, and the brutal killing of candidates and supporters by rivals.

But the sum total of all the flaws in 1982, 1987, 1992, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017 does not equal the disaster that has been, and continues to be, the 2022 national elections, due to end in 8 days' time.

Apart from flawed rolls, a dubious part-redistribution, and doubts about the fair distribution of ballot papers, and the integrity of local electoral officials, the number of deaths directly attributable to election related violence now exceeds 50. And the destruction of houses, schools and even polling centres, has been massive and spread across at least half a dozen provinces.

The current prime minister's electorate of Tari-Pora was declared on Monday of last week - and between then and 20 July just FIVE more seats were declared. Only today, 20 July, will the seat of the current Prime Ministers main rival, Peter O'Neill be declared.

While Prime Minister James Marape, and his predecessor, Mr O'Neill, are logical favourites to be the new PM there will be other contenders who will emerge in the coming weeks as more seats are declared and the real "horse trading" will begin in earnest.

What is really causing concern among seasoned observers is the sheer number of serious flaws in polling and counting emerging in just about every part of Papua New Guinea. The number of flaws and the blatant nature of them combine to raise real doubts about the integrity of the electoral process from the very outset.

And it seems increasingly evident that the national elections organisers are simply not up to the challenge of delivering electoral outcomes that are fair and transparent in around 117 seats across a challenging environment in which there are 800 languages spoken with 80 per cent of the people living in rural and remote communities.

Sadly, there is very little if anything Australia can do about it.

Papua New Guinea is an independent democracy. The national parliament is at the very heart of the democratic process. If the parliament is elected by a process that is flawed, or even worse rorted and corrupted, then public confidence in the parliament, the government and the prime minister and his ministers will disappear.

It is on the precipice already. The coming weeks will determine if it does go over the edge with catastrophic consequences for Papua New Guinea.

Possibly the most effective contribution Australia could offer PNG would be to lend the PNG Government a number of judges capable of hearing the deluge of appeals that is now inevitable.

In recent elections appeals have dragged on for three years or more, a totally unsatisfactory situation.

Dealing with appeals is one problem, but an even more imminent one looms.

The Police Commissioner has threatened to declare as "failures" all electorates in the troubled Enga Province if lawlessness does not stop. There is no chance of lawlessness stopping in the current environment.

If an election in an individual sear is declared a "failure" then a byelection must be held. In addition, the regional seat covering the open electorate will also not be filled and a byelection held! That will leave the office of provincial Governor vacant for months.

But there is an even greater uncertainty caused by "failed" seat results.

The national parliament of PNG is at the very heart of the nation's democracy. It is where prime ministers are elected - and removed.

My sources tell me up to 10 seats might be declared "failures". In that event does the National Parliament proceed with electing the next Prime Minister?

It probably will, but the consequence will be a further erosion of the people's confidence in the democratic process - already at breaking point!

I really fear for the survival of parliamentary democracy in Papua New Guinea.

The level of lawlessness and a lack of respect for the rule of law are far worse than either the local or international media have reported, or probably fully comprehend.

These are dark and troubling times for PNG, coming on top of a pandemic that continues largely unchecked and an economy which has driven down already low and inadequate living standards for all but the privileged few.

National leadership is singularly lacking. People just don't respect authority- at any level.

If the newly elected parliament convenes in six weeks or so with deep suspicion over the integrity of local elections, let alone the whole nationwide electoral process, then it will take more than luck for parliamentary democracy to survive.

The irony is - and I will elaborate on this is in a future article - is that maybe the real "winner" will be the People's Republic of China!

China has an obvious interest in political instability and a lack of confidence in leaders among the people of PNG.

As the debacle continues, and arguably worsens, China must be thinking about just how it can capitalise on the instability in the post-election period.

It's intrusion into the public and private sectors of the economy alike is already massive.

Unless PNG's leaders wake up and provide real national authority and direction, and public confidence, the very future stability of a young democracy will be in peril.