A ‘failed’ Papua New Guinea national elections would be a disaster for Papua and Australia

In two weeks' time around six million Papua New Guineans will vote to elect a new National Parliament which, when it assembles, will choose the next Prime Minister.

Papua New Guinea is a robust parliamentary democracy, but one that is not without serious flaws.

The flaws really are consistent with the state of public administration in Papua New Guinea - underfunded, lacking in sound management, and struggling to cope with the challenging terrain of our closest neighbour.

Papua New Guinea society today is, to borrow Paul Keating's favourite saying, "hanging together like a gossamer thread".

It really needs the national elections to be transparent, honest and efficient. The problems which have emerged already cast doubt over all three.

There has been talk in the PNG media that the elections might "fail". We have to hope that does not happen - it would create enormous problems for PNG and for Australia.

So far, even before voting starts, there have been 29 deaths which can be directly linked to the elections. It would be safe to say that many more recent deaths can be indirectly limited to the tensions the elections cause.

Papua New Guinea's future stability depends on good government and on a representative national parliament which the people can have confidence in. It is the parliament, not the people, who chooses the prime minister, who then appoints the cabinet.

The process in electing the next prime minister will be the subject of a future article. It is complex, drawn out, and all too frequently dependent on coercion and money!

But back to the actual elections. Australia has sent 150 defence force personnel to PNG mainly to help with logistics such as distributing and collecting ballot boxes. In a parliament of around 120 members, the majority of whom live in rural and remote areas, it is a logistical nightmare.

The ADF role will be invaluable.

Alarmingly, China has offered to send security force personnel to help maintain law and order during the elections. But mercifully PNG has not taken up the offer.

There have to be limits on our assistance, even though a peaceful and fair election is clearly in the

Australian national interest.

We have assisted with the printing of ballot papers and training electoral staff. But we cannot be seen to be "running" the elections. That must be handled by the PNG Electoral Commission, an independent statutory body.

Reports this week indicate that the "common roll" is hopelessly out of date. It is too late to fix that.

There is also a real question over the integrity of the electoral boundaries. There has not been a nationwide redistribution since independence in 1975.

Early this year the government added seven new electorates with real doubts as to whether they were really the most deserving. As a result, the imbalance between the population in various electorates is glaringly obvious. Some electorates have just half the population of others.

But to my mind the flawed process and inadequate funding are not the greatest threat.

The real threat to the integrity of the elections is the distinct possibility that violence will erupt in some areas resulting in killings, looting, and destruction of property.

If that happens across the country the whole electoral process will be in doubt.

That would be a disaster, putting a cloud over the process to elect the next prime minister.

The results in many seats will be challenged in the courts. That process will take several years based on past experience.

The elections process has been disrupted already, with delays in the actual commencement of the nominations period, and the actual polling timetable.

So even before polling begins, the elections process has been flawed.

What needs to happen is for the five weeks between now and the end of polling to function smoothly?

With over 50 political parties contesting the elections the makeup of the next parliament is impossible to predict. It is even more so given the history of election in which between half and three quarters of sitting members are not re-elected.

There can be little doubt that the incumbent prime minister James Marape and his predecessor Peter O'Neill are contenders to be elected prime minister. But they are no more than contenders!

Just how many sitting members are re-elected will be a key factor. But as big a factor will be which contender is best organised when newly elected members are known.

The horse trading will probably run for three or four weeks.

Then the parliament will meet in late August to elect the next Prime Minister.

But in the two months between now and then a lot may go wrong.

We have to hope that the killings and lawlessness seen already won't continue when it gets down to the serious business of voting and forming the government.

With around 3,500 candidates it is clear that politics is "big business" in Papua New Guinea - I would argue the biggest business!

Australia must watch from the sidelines.

We have to hope that it is not just the biggest business, but also a very transparent and successful one in the weeks ahead.