Get back to normal life?

A frequent refrain I hear goes something like this, "However, we also need get back to 'normal' so we can live our lives to the full, without suffering from fear and anxiety induced by the popular press and without unnecessary, unproven, authoritarian government restrictions and confusing, everchanging rules."

What shape is this normal life going to take? Because one thing is certain, life will never go back to the way it was pre-pandemic.

Stepping back in time, people who had leprosy were isolated in communities until better methods of treatment were discovered. Isolation was the method used to prevent other people in the population from becoming infected. The same methods were used in the treatment of Tuberculosis.

Ships that arrived on Australian shores, would raise flags if there were unexplained illnesses on board and both Sydney Heads and the Heads of Port Phillip Bay had quarantine stations where people with illnesses were isolated until they either got better or died.

Melbourne had its own infectious diseases hospital Fairfield until it was deemed to be unnecessary and it was closed. The Hospital specialises in looking after people with a multitude of infectious diseases, including hepatitis, tuberculosis, typhoid and cholera just to name a few.

Typhoid Mary, who was an asymptomatic carrier of the pathogenic bacteria Salmonella typhi. Her refusal to isolate and to continue to work infected an estimated 122 people with 3 confirmed deaths and an unconfirmed estimate of up to 50 people.

At the end of the First World War, returning soldiers introduced the Spanish Flu into Australia, causing more than 12,000 deaths. The current annual mortality rate from influenza pre-covid is about 3,000 people per annum. "The population of Australia in 1914 was 4,948,990 and the current official population is 23,135,281". Data shows that the measure instigated to prevent the spread of the Covid virus also was extremely effective in decreasing the spread of the influenza virus as was reflected in the lower mortality rate in the years of strict infection control measures.

With the Covid virus, no one has a crystal ball to peer into the future, however going on past data, this virus has shown a remarkable ability to mutate and to do it quickly and for that mutation to spread like wildfire.

The polio epidemic infected thousands of children leaving many with life long consequences, it is estimated that there were 400,000 childhood survivors some were reliant on the iron lung in order to live, spending their lives in Fairfield's respirator ward.

"Houses were fumigated, people quarantined, and entire families ostracised. Desperately worried parents resorted to hanging pungent camphor around their children's necks in a misguided effort to ward off the virus and some fled to the mountains to escape. "

Sound familiar?

Right at the beginning of this pandemic, mistakes were made, and incompetence reared its head. But more importantly, decisions were modified and adapted rapidly to suit a changing landscape. Policy on the run, yes, but to sit back and do nothing would have had its own unknown consequences.

Australian governments in spite of their best efforts to stuff things up did a remarkable job at keeping Australia's mortality rate as low as it was. Modelling by the AMA shows that the mortality rate could have been as high as 40,000 Australians, this is almost equivalent to the population of the city of Wagga Wagga.

However, the ABS data on the deaths caused by the Covid virus does not tell the whole story. Even though the mortality rate was low, people infected with the Covid virus who required hospitalisation pushed the ability of Australia's Public hospitals to cope with the surge in demand, caused by this virus to a crisis point. As demonstrated by the article "Pandemic triggers 'mass exodus' of critical care nurses"

In Australia, there are 2,378 available Intensive care (ICU) beds, not all ICU beds have the capacity for artificial ventilation and only extremely specialised ICUs can place, seriously ill patients when other methods of artificial ventilation prove to be inadequate on ECMO (Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, also known as extracorporeal life support). Highly specialised training is needed for critical care nurses so that they can operate this machinery safely.

The data from the ABS did not show the length of time a person who is seriously ill from Covid spends occupying a bed in the ICU. The length of stay, which is calculated by the number of days a seriously ill and most likely artificially ventilated patient will occupy an Intensive Care Bed, could be as short as 5 days or less, or up to 4 weeks or more. Not all patients will recover, and many will die whilst in Intensive Care.

"There were a total of 140,400 admissions to ICU and 46,600 required the use of a ventilator".

One third of seriously ill patients infected with the Covid virus who were admitted to an ICU required the support of a mechanical ventilator for them to survive.

There are 191 ICUs in Australia with 2378 available intensive care beds during baseline activity, (9.4 ICU beds per 100 000 population). Of the 175 ICUs contributing to the March 2020 surge survey, representing 2228 (94%) of available intensive care beds, maximal surge would add an additional 4258 intensive care beds (191% increase) and 2631 invasive ventilators (120% increase). This could require up to an additional 4092 senior doctors (325% increase over baseline), and 42 720 registered ICU nurses (365% increase over baseline). An additional 188 ventilators in veterinary facilities were reported.

Hopefully, we may see the last of this virus, however, on the off chance that a more deadly variant is lurking in the wings, we as a society will again be forced to make choices, some of which will be extremely unpopular with certain sectors. Do we sacrifice peoples lives in order to keep the economy functioning, until the businesses that keep the economy function because their owners and workers themselves become ill and unable to function in their usual capacity?

Non-compliance in using basic infection control methods by members of the building sectors contributed significantly to the failure in containing this virus.

This video shows how easy it is to spread contamination around, and this does not take into account the droplet mode of spreading a virus.

When it comes to Dam Lies and Statistics, how that data is interpreted depends solely on the point a person wants to make. The people I came to detest were not the politicians although I was sick of them, it was the people who for what ever reason could not comply with simple infection control measures, because their non compliance extended the periods of lock down that was being used to contain the spread of this virus.