Ukraine and the spread of nuclear weapons

The NPT is now under threat from three sources. First, the Big Five nuclear weapon countries (US, Russia, China, UK and France) have made little progress in honouring their commitment to work for general and complete disarmament.

Second, as I argued in January this year, North Korea is now a nuclear weapon country (and outside the NPT). The US will not attack it. On the contrary, fears about North Korea will encourage the militarists in Japan and South Korea to increase military expenditure.

Third, the Ukraine conflict has revealed NATO's reluctance to have a head-on collision with Russia. NATO countries will supply weapons and other equipment to Ukraine, but they will avoid having "boots on the ground" or using NATO forces to destroy Russian forces. Possessing nuclear weapons may make a country "untouchable".

To conclude, countries within the NPT system come together every five years to review progress. Owing to the COVID-19 pandemic, the most recent (2020) review conference has been postponed. The conference is now tentatively scheduled for August this year.

But not much is expected from it given the Ukraine conflict. Russia has a right to be there, but will it be excluded as part of the international sanctions against it? What will the review conference dare to say about Ukraine? (It will be the elephant in the room and so difficult to overlook).

Meanwhile, the traditionally neutral countries Finland and Sweden are now thinking about joining NATO as a reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. NATO has received a fresh surge of relevance and support thanks to Putin's actions. It is getting larger and more influential.

In short: Putin has forced some countries to rethink their security arrangements. Will this also lead to demands among other countries to rethink their own foregoing of nuclear weapons – and so leave the NPT? This is what North Korea did in 2003 (having originally joined in 1985). It is legal to leave the NPT once a period of notice has been given.

Will more countries now want to develop their own nuclear weapons? Japan? South Korea? Will Australia want to revive its own old ideas of having nuclear weapons?

The Ukraine conflict will cast a long shadow well into the future.