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Corruption and autocracy

By Guy Hallowes - posted Monday, 2 May 2022


The war in Ukraine has highlighted the unbearable stench of corruption that prevails in Putin's Russia and around the world. As Bill Browder explains in 'Red Notice', Putin's 'Olycrooks' can steal whatever they like, as long as they give their president a cut.

But the question is: where do they all invest their ill-gotten gains, including Putin? Where else but in our Western democracies of course, the only place where it would be safe! Why invest in Russia, where it might be stolen!

Much of the world's autocrats behave the same way:

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Africa

There is not a single country in Africa that is not governed corruptly. More money leaves Africa than is paid in, including the aid donated to its various countries and the cash paid in by the growing diaspora round the world. Botswana used to be the one exception to this, but sadly this is no longer the case.

The Middle East

The only country that is not corrupt is Israel.

Asia and the Pacific

Chinais the same as Russia, perhaps not quite so blatantly corrupt but corrupt all the same.

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Indiahas democratic elections, but if one tries to do any kind of business in India one will be expected to pay a bribe. While India's individual states are genuinely democratically elected, much state legislature only operates for fifteen days a year or less. The current prime minister would probably like more authority but doesn't have it as yet. So the jury is out as far as India is concerned.

Other countries in the Asian subcontinent are then either run by the military (e.g. Pakistan) or autocrats (e.g. Sri-Lanka).

The only relatively non-corrupt countries in the Asia / Pacific region are Japan, Taiwan, Singapore,Australia, New Zealand and South Korea.

Central and South America

Virtually every country has a fundamentally corrupt government, some worse than others (such as Brazil and Venezuela).

North America

The USA and Canada are relatively non-corrupt.

Europe

Most of Europe is relatively non-corrupt, lead by the Scandinavian countries.

Hungary is one obvious exception, being run by a corrupt Olycrook sympathetic to Russia.

Many of the countries mentioned above do have elections, but they are severely compromised by candidates having to be 'approved' by the existing government (e.g. Russia and Hong Kong), or they are heavily gerrymandered (e.g. Hungary), or corruption is so embedded in society that it is almost impossible to eliminate (i.e.. most of Africa). China does not even bother with what they regard as the farce of holding elections.

So what are the reasons for all this corruption:

  • Power and Greed. Obvious motivations for autocrats worldwide.
  • Habit. Many countries have no history of any kind of democratic process, they have always been governed in an autocratic style. Russia and China are prime examples.
  • Overpopulation. This applies to much of Africa and the Middle East. Overpopulation can lead to desperation.
  • Hopelessness. These countries often have so-called elites who believe that whatever they do, there is not enough wealth to go around, so they steal what they can to protect themselves and their families andsend money to be invested in Western democracies.
  • Entitlement. These elites also feel that they deserve a Western-style standard of living and will do anything to attain it.

It's notable that, in the past, much of Europe behaved in a similar way, with aristocratic elites just taking what they needed to maintain what they considered to be a reasonable standard of living, and the rest of the population having to make do with what was left. The Industrial Revolution gradually provided enough for the whole population and democracy resulted. However, that is clearly not the situation elsewhere.

Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) ranks 180 countries from around the world based on their perceived level of corruption, with the higher number representing the worse the corruption. Here are some examples from the index:

  • Russia: 136
  • Kenya: 128
  • India: 85
  • South Africa: 70
  • China: 66
  • USA: 27
  • Australia: 18 (down from 13)
  • New Zealand and Denmark: 1

The West is not completely innocent, however. Although Western countries are generally ranked lower on the CPI, they are still somewhat complicit in other countries' corruption. Their banking systems have made it easy to transfer money around the world. Then there are tax breaks. For example, if you're a UK resident, you'll normally pay tax on your foreign income – but not necessarily if your permanent home ('domicile') is abroad. The Olycrooks would love this arrangement! They'd happily use it to invest in property in the UK.There are other numerous 'tax avoidance schemes' all around the world.

So what now?

The war in Ukraine, as well as our understanding of the trends described above, are having several consequences:

  • Globalisation. In the past, globalisation has had many benefits, in that it has kept inflation at a low level. However, many democracies will now be reviewing the countries with which they do business. For example, do they wish to risk being held hostage by an autocratic regime (e.g. Russia believing it can hold Germany hostage because of Germany's dependence on Russian gas)?
  • Supply chain issues. These have arisen due to the pandemic and exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. Supply chain issues means that many countries will now review their strategic requirements and make changes to address these. (In the case of Australia, the supply of critical medicines is certainly one issue to be addressed).
  • Food shortages. Ukraine and Russia usually provide large quantities of wheat for Africa and the Middle East, the supply of which is already being disrupted. In addition, Africa has had a disrupted planting season due to the pandemic, so there are now likely to be significant food shortages in many countries. This will result in an increasing number of desperate refugees trying to gain entry to Western democracies (the USA from South America, Europe from Africa and the Middle East, and Australia from parts of Asia).

Ultimately, most communities around the world agree that war is an abomination to be ended and never repeated. However, how many of us truly appreciate the extent of ongoing corruption around the world, and how much it affects all of us?

It is my hope that this article can at least inspire more thought and insight.

 

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About the Author

Sydney-based Guy Hallowes is the author of Icefall, a thriller dealing with the consequences of climate change. He has also written several novels on the change from Colonial to Majority rule in Africa. To buy browse and buy his books click here.

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