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War is a dying business

By Keith Suter - posted Friday, 1 April 2022


They were all "conventional" operations. Korea (1950-3) was a "draw". The defeats were all in the guerrilla conflicts, such as Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

The US is not short of money for defence: total military expenditure for the world is US$1,981bn. Of that the US spend US$778bn (39 per cent of total and easily #1). China is a long way behind at # 2 at US$252bn.

But money alone does not guarantee victory. You cannot simply buy victory in an era of defensive warfare.

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High morale, a clear sense of military direction, and plenty of scope for local military initiative are all key factors.

Ukraine is demonstrating this on a daily basis. Russian soldiers don't know what hit them. They were told they would be welcomed as liberators. Others were told they would only be going on a military exercise. The lies have damaged their morale.

Meanwhile Ukrainian morale is high. The Ukrainian leader is now an international hero (and potentially a Time magazine "person of the year"). The Russians are already trying to redefine what would constitute "victory" for them because they will not be able to take over the country. The invasion has failed, albeit at immense human cost

We will be talking about the Ukraine invasion for many years to come. It will serve as a warning to governments about the risks of waging offensive warfare. Governments will need to find alternative ways to settle their international disputes.

 

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About the Author

Dr Keith Suter is a futurist, thought leader and media personality in the areas of social policy and foreign affairs. He is a prolific and well-respected writer and social commentator appearing on radio and television most weeks.

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