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War is a dying business

By Keith Suter - posted Friday, 1 April 2022


Additionally, Putin has given fresh vigour to NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). This was created in 1949 "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down". It had been largely dormant since its victory over the USSR in 1991 and the end of the Cold War: mission accomplished.

NATO had spent the last three decades as an answer in search of a problem. Three years ago, President Macron of France said that NATO was "brain dead". Suddenly all of this has changed.

Ukraine's spirited defence has inspired much of the world.

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Meanwhile, Russia is conducting operations in an era of "transparent warfare". Mobile phones are mobile cameras uploading news reports immediately to a global audience; all of Russia's failings are being publicised globally.

The pendulum of warfare has also affected the US.

The USSR was beaten by Afghan guerrillas 1979-89 (much as they had beaten British forces in earlier eras).

Now a new generation of Afghans has beaten the US as well.

The US had no clear war strategy 2001-21. Some saw the invasion as a war against al-Qaida (which had begun in 1997 with bin Laden's declaration of war on the US). The US was also trapped in a civil war between various Afghan tribes (Taliban are Pathans, for example, with kin across the UK-created border [Durand Line] in Pakistan); there are also feuding Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazari minorities. Afghanistan is a pre-modern state (with little sense of "national" identity). Americans and their allies did not understand the country.

Meanwhile there was also a regional war: a struggle between India and Pakistan for regional dominance. China is now also a player (especially given the US$3 trillion worth of Afghani raw materials and the access south eventually to the Indian Ocean).

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The US also took on other agendas: such as education of girls, eradication of poppy, and the provision of infrastructure. These were all worthwhile ventures, but they clouded the military vision. The US didn't know for sure what it was trying to achieve.

The US defeat in Afghanistan – its longest war – needs to be seen in the wider context of the pendulum of warfare. Despite Hollywood movies with their glamour and drama, the US has in fact had an appalling war record since 1945. Hollywood has provided a wrong image of the US.

The US post-1945 US has had only a limited list of victories: 1983 invasion of Grenada, 1989 invasion of Panama and arrest of Manuel Noriega (1934-2017), liberation of Kuwait (1990-1), and the Kosovo War (1998-9).

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About the Author

Dr Keith Suter is a futurist, thought leader and media personality in the areas of social policy and foreign affairs. He is a prolific and well-respected writer and social commentator appearing on radio and television most weeks.

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