Nato should help Putin over Ukraine

Europe is on the verge of war. Putin has put himself in a corner and NATO should help him get out of it – for the sake of Europe's peace and security.

For the last few weeks – in the midst of a very cold winter – Putin has deployed about 120,000 troops on the Russian side of the Ukraine border. I am not sure that Putin now knows what he is going to do with them.

An attack on Kiev, the national capital, would require more than 120,000 troops. Ukraine is, in geographical terms, one of Europe's largest countries and Russia cannot mount a surprise dash across half of the country to capture the capital with only 120,000 troops.

Russia in 2014 stole some of the Russian-dominated eastern part of the country. Kiev is in the non-Russian part of the country. The citizens are well armed, including by western powers. And the war will be televised.

Putin risks having his soldiers return home in body bags. As Russia will recall from its disastrous Afghanistan invasion (1979-89), invading a country is different from occupying it. Ukrainians can make life very difficult for Russian occupiers.

Putin is not such a smart operator as he thought he was. He acted in the last few weeks because he wanted to exploit what he thought were US weaknesses – the US has been defeated in Iraq and Afghanistan, and domestically there is a toxic political culture.

But ironically Putin's bullying has brought the US political class together in a rare show of agreement. Republicans and Democrats both want to resist Russia.

Meanwhile his action has also reopened the debate in the neutral western European countries – notably Finland and Sweden – on whether they too should join NATO to withstand potential Russian aggression.

Putin's grandstanding has gone badly wrong.

How to resolve this crisis?

The roots of the crisis go back to the end of the Cold War three decades ago. It was agreed between the Soviet and US leaders that the Soviet Union would withdraw from East Germany (thereby easing the reunification of the two Germanies), while NATO would not seek to recruit former members of the Soviet empire (since to do so would inflame traditional Russian fears of an invasion).

NATO has not honoured that agreement in recent years. It has recruited former members of the Soviet empire.

I can't imagine NATO ever wanting to invade Russia. But what may seem "rational" at a distance may not be so rational to people with a tribal memory of being invaded from the west.

An immediate step would be for NATO to state that Ukraine would not be accepted as a member. This would honour the agreement from three decades ago.

NATO – North Atlantic Treaty Organization – is now getting embroiled in east European affairs, which is outside its geographical area of concern.

NATO has been a very successful treaty organization. It has lasted longer than its long-forgotten sister organizations: SEATO (South-East Asia) and CENTO (Middle East/ south Asia).

NATO has had three purposes: to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down. All three purposes have been met.

The Russians have been kept out of western Europe, the Americans have remained engaged in European affairs (and not returned to the isolationism following World War I), and the Germans have had the fighting spirit beaten out of them and so show no signs of starting another world war.

A second step would be to have a treaty banning low-level warfare, such as cyber-warfare and spreading misinformation.

Finally, the US and Russia need to remember their quarrel is a legacy matter. Russia is a previous enemy of the US. Both need to confront tomorrow's challenge: China.

A lot has been written about China's threat to the US. China expects to be the world's number one country by 2049 – the 100^th anniversary of the Chinese Revolution.

It is worth recalling that China is also a problem for Russia. Another aspect of Russia's tribal memory of invasions is the Golden Horde: the Mongolian invasion of the 14^th century which charged across the Russian landmass (and eventually into Ukraine).

Russians feel very vulnerable about their rear end. Even with the loss of the Soviet Empire in eastern Europe and the Islamic "stans" in the south, Russia remains the world's largest country in geographical terms. It is 11 time zones across.

Most Russians live in the western side of Russia. This means that the rear end of the country has comparatively few people.

Owing to climate change, the permafrost of the Russian Far East/ Siberia is melting. It is now easier to get access to the raw material deep in that land.

Russians fear a Chinese encroachment through their rear end.

Therefore, in the larger scheme of things, the US and Russia ought to be patching up their old disputes and getting ready to deal with China.