Is China seriously considering military bases in the Pacific?

But even if the involvement with the Ihu-Kikori project does not initially extend to a military presence, it gives China a potentially very significant "presence" right on our northern border.

But looking beyond Papua New Guinea, I see three potential areas of concern for Australia, and for New Zealand, Japan and the United States.

The first is Vanuatu, one of our closest and most strategically significant neighbours. China has already built a large wharf in Vanuatu, more than capable of berthing large naval vessels. But Vanuatu is also heavily indebted to China under the "Belt and Road" program and other bi lateral loan arrangements.

Vanuatu is very vulnerable to China's influences and pressures. Clearly if China sought a military base presence, Vanuatu would struggle to say "no".

The second is potentially even more serious for Australia, and our allies. I have written about it recently.

China now has a small, but strategically important, disciplined forces presence in the Solomon Islands. No one whose views I respect believes that the initial six person PRC police contingent won't soon grow rapidly. And as the Solomon Islands does not have an army, influencing the police force gives China just what it needs on our northern border.

When one examine sthe Solomon Islands economy today, the dominance of China after just three years diplomatic recognition is frankly alarming. The Solomon Islands depends on fisheries, timber and gold mining exports. Today more than 80 per cent goes to China, and direct Chinese involvement in the local fisheries, timber and gold sectors is growing.

It also now controls just about 100 per cent of the construction sector, doing virtually all government construction work in particular.

Our influence in the Solomon Islands under the current regime is just about zero. If China sought to establish a permanent "base: in the SI any objections by Australia would be ignored.

The other country of immediate concern when it comes to a potential PRC "Base" in our region is Kiribati. This small Central Pacific nation is one of China's closest allies in our region.

Last year, China expressed an interest is redeveloping a long abandoned World War Two US airstrip in a remote part of Kiribati. Clearly its development as a China controlled airport and base would be easy to achieve.

Kiribati is rapidly finding itself in debt to China, and again it would simply not be in a position to say "no" to any China proposal with some "benefits" attached.

This list is far from exhaustive – but I wanted to get it on the record so we might keep a close watch on it throughout 2022

China is playing "the long game" in our region. It has shifted from "aid to trade" and to locking in our regional neighbours to Belt and Road and other loan deals that in many cases, if not most cases, are unaffordable.

This year may well tell whether that extends to at least one military presence in our immediate region and beyond!