North Korea is a nuclear power

North Korea knows this and can exploit it. China is only weeks away from the Winter Olympics. The games have been surrounded by a host of problems (such as COVID, and allegations of human rights abuses).

Now North Korea is adding to the tensions by conducting tests without the usual "provocation" – military exercises by the US and South Korea. It is winter in that part of the world and so too cold for military exercises.

But North Korea is carrying on – even though one could imagine that China would prefer not to have them in the lead up to the games.

Finally, if a nuclear armed North Korea is a nightmare, could the alternative be even worse? We must always be willing to think about the unthinkable.

The unthinkable in this case would be a rebellion within North Korea that sees the dynastic rulers being removed from power and the country falling into chaos. A "North Korean Spring"?

As with the "Arab Spring" a decade ago, there are no obvious replacements getting ready to take power. There are no "Nelson Mandelas" ready to spring into action. The Arab world has had a decade of chaos and suffering – and still very little democracy has been established.

North Korea could be the same – except that it now has nuclear weapons. Who will get them?