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The Solomons engagement has turned into a huge negative for Australia

By Jeffrey Wall - posted Friday, 7 January 2022


But in the longer term China will be calling the shots when it comes to maintaining "law and order" (and crushing dissent) in one of our closest and most strategically significant neighbours!

Our future capacity to "influence" police training, and maintaining law and order, will surely be limited, if not entirely non-existent.

China will not be interested in "sharing" the role it has been given, which will surely be expanded for as long as Sogavare remains Prime Minister – and he recently won a vote of confidence in the SI Parliament.

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The silence from the federal government on this most significant step by the SI Prime Minister and his Government has been deafening. Conveniently, the announcement came during the Christmas-New Year period.

The media has not been silent with the Weekend Guardian highlighting the consequences of the decision for Australia and regional security and stability. Even the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal offered the view that the time had surely arrived for the United States to increase its engagement with the SI – and across the South Pacific generally.

Sadly it is a bit too late for that!

What needs to happen as a result of this latest development is what I have been advocating for some time – if we are going to counter China's growing influence we are going to have to be "big and bold" and we need to persuade the United States, New Zealand and countries such as Japan to do so as well.

China's influence in our closest neighbour, Papua New Guinea, continues to grow. The national elections in Papua New Guinea mid-year will be critical in determining just how much more it grows in the next year or two.

So far the China influence in PNG has not become a factor in the run up to the PNG elections, but I see signs it will do so.

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There is one country where it will be an influence in national elections to be held later this year – Fiji. The former Fiji PM, Sitiveni Rabuka, has announced he will be contesting the national elections and the China influence (especially through Belt and Road loan arrangements) will be his top concern.

The Australian Government needs to have an urgent and searching look at its strategy in our region – not just to counter China but also rebuild our influence and credibility.

The engagement in the Solomon Islands sadly has not done so. If anything it will eventually be seen as a significant setback. Sogavare's opponents, who are principally from the Malaita Province, will hardly be grateful to Australia for bailing him out of a difficult position, only opening the way for China to significantly expand its influence in the all-important national; security and law and order areas.

The Solomon Islands is a small nation, but it is strategically very important for Australia and our allies.

It also adjoins the PNG Province of Bougainville, which is moving towards total independence from Papua New Guinea within the next five years and the consequences for regional stability and influence that will inevitably bring.

Lessons must surely be learnt from the recent Solomon Islands intervention and just how quickly a seemingly positive move turned very negative!

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About the Author

Jeffrey Wall CSM CBE is a Brisbane Political Consultant and has served as Advisor to the PNG Foreign Minister, Sir Rabbie Namaliu – Prime Minister 1988-1992 and Speaker 1994-1997.

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