Widening class division in Thailand: the Covid-19 factor

Thailand’s Stock Exchange Index rose 43 percent over the last year, which helped increased the wealth of most of Thailand’s elite families.

Over the last 18 months, economic activity has slumped dramatically, particularly in the SME, service, and tourism sectors. Government directed restrictions during the third wave of Covid outbreaks, since April, is starting to economically and socially devastate susceptible communities. In the fourth quarter of last year, there was some optimism the worst was over, and the domestic economy slowly began to normalize. The government tried to kickstart tourism, promoting travel to Thai citizens, in the absence of foreign tourists. However, the outbreak from Thai workers returning from Myanmar in Mae Sot, destroyed the local tourism initiative, and the Thor Lor entertainment complex outbreak over the April Songkran holidays, led to restrictions that are gradually getting tougher, due to the linear growth in the number of daily Covid cases.   

In Bangkok, restaurants, micro-businesses, and tourist-based enterprises have suffered from the periodic restrictions, depressed consumer spending, and the absence of both foreign and local tourism. With a new set of restrictions starting with a dramatic rise in Covid cases, and little relief from the government in the form of debt moratoriums and a co-payment scheme (Khon La Khrueng), that subsidized food to the value of 3,000 baht last restrictions, food stalls and vendors are suffering.

There are clearly visible signs of economic malaise all over the country. Empty factories and warehouses, closed down shops, houses and land for sale. More food banks are being opened by charities, trying to assist those who are struggling to feed themselves. Sex industry workers, estimated around 500,000, who as a group, contributed USD 6.4 billion, or 3.0 percent of GDPpre-pandemic, were not eligible for government assistance, as their vocation is deemed illegal in Thailand. During the first outbreak, most used savings. During the second outbreak, many borrowed from friends or moneylenders, and this current outbreak is making many destitute. Workers in the Bangkok, main provincial city areas, and tourism precincts, have returned to their home provinces, looking for some economic activity to undertake to produce an income.

The same is occurring in many provincial cities, especially those that relied on tourism to survive. Some cities like Hat Yai, that relied on Malaysian tourists are virtually ghost towns in the city centre. Its only rising rubber prices that have kept the smaller towns buoyant.

The Prayuth government has attempted to balance economic considerations and public health in making decisions about restrictions. Large manufacturing concerns have not been under any restrictions during the pandemic, even though small and service businesses have been restricted, with many ordered to close, last year for a number of months on end. Many provincial hotels were forced to shutdown for months, with many never reopening.

Twenty percent of the economy was driven by tourism, with almost 40 million foreign tourists visiting Thailand in 2019. This has almost completely disappeared when international borders were closed in March last year. Later in 2020, the government promoted local tourism with travel and accommodation subsidies. However, outbreaks in the beginning of the year, and during the April Songkran break, sabotaged this initiative. The government has now started what is called the ‘sandbox’ scheme, opening up Phuket, and later Koh Samoi, Pattaya, and Chiang Mai to international tourism under stringent requirements. Tourists have begun to trickle in by the hundreds daily, far short of the 109,000 daily international tourist arrivals before the pandemic.

Prayuth’s balanced approach to lockdown has put him under intense criticism. Prayuth is being criticized for not acting fast enough to lockdown the country before case numbers started escalating, and also for the destitution of the people, who had little financial support from the government during the latest outbreaks. The latest covid case outbreak has become a symbol of Prayuth regime incompetence.

The escalating pandemic in Thailand has focused attention of the double standards applicable to the elite in society and the others. This has been very evident in the vaccine rollout. The elite and privileged have been able to secure a vaccination before many of the vulnerable in society. While people have been suffering, the grounds and infrastructure of the grand palace complex in central Bangkok has been enlarged, to become a city within a city. Politicians have been perceived and criticized as being above the law on social media. The Prayuth regime now has critics from a much wider spectrum of society, than before the pandemic, where discontent with government performance is growing.

There is speculation that the coalition government, Prayuth had cobbled together is becoming much more difficult for him to control. There is growing disunity and distrust among the coalition partners. The major party, Phalang Pracharat (PPP) is currently in a number of disagreements with the prime collation partners, Bhumjaithai (BJT), Democrats, and Chat Thai Phatthana parties. This has been very evident over the constitutional changes issue, and management of the pandemic.

At the same time, the renewed student protests, which began again on 24 June marking the 1932 anniversary of the end of absolute monarchy, is still calling for the resignation of Prayuth as prime minister. Protest numbers still reached the thousands, even though there are strict covid restrictions on meetings, and more than 60 students have been arrested during prior demonstrations, under the notorious section 112 of the criminal code, Lese Majaste, which has a jail term of up to 15 years on each offence. In a recent protest, a prominent former Red Shirt leader, Jatuporn Prompan, who was just ordered to serve a prison sentence in two defamation cases in 2009, against former prime minister Abbisit Vejjajiva, made an appearance.

The students are unhappy with the very limited proposed constitutional amendments and their earlier demands for the abolition of the 250 member military appointed senate, and reforms to the monarchy, so it becomes more accountable. This is after king Maha Vajiralongkorn took direct control of over USD 30 billion worth of assets from the State Property Bureau, and placed two army units in the Bangkok region, under his direct control.

In what was called a car mob, students in central Bangkok called on both the Democrats and Bhumjaithai parties to abandon the government and join the opposition to topple Prayuth as prime minister. Hypothetically, if this defection occurred, this would give the opposition 321 votes out of the 276 votes needed to topple Prayuth. Prayuth has the 250 member senate firmly behind him, as all the members are appointed by the military.

Thailand is now in a much deeper era of class division, where the poor have become poorer, over the duration of the pandemic. The political parties that support the Prayuth regime are under more pressure to abandon the government. However, this would leave the political situation just more unstable, as there is very little likelihood of an election with the current pandemic situation. Currently, overt support for the student movement hasn’t expanded beyond the students themselves. The former red shirts are hesitant because of how the army destroyed the movement after the 2014 coup, but economic desperation is bringing back political narratives among the Thai population, who abandoned political talk for years after the coup. This time there is much more awareness and open talk about how the poor and middle class, don’t have a say in Thai politics today. However, politically, there is little voice that can espouse their displeasure and their economic hardships.

This awareness and of the divide between the people and the elite of Thai society will long outlast the pandemic, and will play a role in future political narratives for years to come.