The future of Bougainville a challenge for Australia as well as Papua New Guinea

The PNG Prime Minister and the Bougainville President agreed on a series of consultative and constitutional processes that have to be concluded before actual independence can happen.

The overwhelming requirement is going to be "goodwill" on both sides!

Relations between the PNG National Government and the ABG have generally been sound – even though some clear differences remain. That needs to continue even with the complication of the PNG national elections taking place in the middle of 2022.

The initial key decision on Independence rests with the PNG National Parliament. It won't be the current Parliament but the parliament elected next year with the commencement of constitutional and legislative requirements scheduled to be tabled in 2023.

The greatest certainly about the next national elections is that many of the current members won't be re-elected. In the past it has been as much as 75% of members losing their seats. Next year might be no different. Were the next Parliament to decline to proceed with the independence process the consequences would be massive.

So the road ahead will be potentially very hazardous. It is a road Australia will have to watch from the sidelines very carefully.

In the meantime Australia needs to begin serious evaluation of significant additional support for the good people of Bougainville who we need to ensure remain our good neighbours and friends!