The consequences for Australia of low vaccination rates in PNG and the Pacific

As Premiers and Chief Ministers impose lockdowns and other restrictions on citizens after a handful of Covid-19 cases it is timely to look at the current position in our closest neighbours – Papua New Guinea, Solomons, Timor Leste, Vanuatu and Fiji.

And in doing so I will offer some thoughts on the consequences for Australia not only of the current position, but also what is likely to impact Australia in the medium term.

There seems to be an air of total unreality in the federal government, and especially in DFAT, when it comes not just to how the governments of our regional neighbours are responding, but more particularly community attitudes to the virus, testing and vaccination.

Our closest neighbour is Papua New Guinea and by far the most populous – upwards of eight million people.

The position in Papua New Guinea is alarming – for the good people of PNG and for Australia, and especially Far North Queensland and the Torres Strait.

The last official report from PNG authorities was issued late last week. The number of positive Covid-19 cases in PNG stood at 17,079 with 173 deaths. It is generally agreed these figures seriously understate the true position. The number of cases is almost certainly at least double that number.

But here is even more troubling statistics! Since the virus first hit PNG just 131,712 people have been tested (out of a population of close to 9 million). Just 49,333 people have been vaccinated (many only with the first vaccination) and the majority of those are health and essential service workers).

There is NO shortage of vaccines in PNG today. The donated vaccines from Australia, the international community and New Zealand are well over 200,000. Last week China delivered 200,000 of one of its vaccines.

But the problem in Papua New Guinea is much more serious than these bare statistics indicate – and they are serious enough.

I have commented in earlier articles that vaccine resistance is already a huge problem in Papua New Guinea. A survey earlier this year by "The National" newspaper revealed around 77% of respondents did not want to be vaccinated. I am told that since the vaccine roll out to the community at large began the take up rate has been alarmingly low. Even the PNG Health Minister has confirmed that.

But last week a DEVPOLICY blog revealed an even more alarming position that Canberra simply cannot ignore.

It is widely accepted that vaccine resistance is greatest among the rural majority in PNG – comprising 80% of the population. There is an expectation that the urban minority, including more educated citizens, will have higher acceptance.

The DEVPOLICY blog contradicts that quite alarmingly. The Crawford School of Business and Public Policy, and the University of PNG, surveyed 281 student of the University of PNG on their attitudes towards vaccination.

Just 6% (six per cent) said they would like to be vaccinated! A further 46% were unsure, while 48% gave a definite "NO".

Is it any wonder that the vaccine process in our closest neighbour is so slow and low?

I will return to the consequences for Australia of this alarming position.

The position in Fiji is of grave concern. And the reality of the position will present special challenges for Australia. The number of cases totals 3,500 out of a population of around 889,000. But the number is escalating – at an average of close to 300 new cases a day.

While vaccination resistance seems to be much lower than in PNG, the escalating number of cases means the tourism industry in Fiji faces a catastrophe. Australia and New Zealand have responded well delivering adequate testing kits and vaccines.

Our other two eastern neighbours The Solomon Islands and Vanuatu have reported only a handful of cases but to our north Timor Leste has had over 9,000 positive tests in a population of 1.3 million. Australia has provided significant assistance. China has been focusing on Timor Leste as well.

It is apparent that the most consequential position for Australia relates to Papua New Guinea – our closest neighbour.

It is complex as well as consequential.

Supplying vaccines – which we have committed to do with up to 1 million initially offered – is simply not going to address the crisis in Papua New Guinea. Supplying more testing equipment is not the answer either. Testing would seem to be actually in decline.

If the Delta version gets to PNG, as is inevitable, a critical position will get even worse if that is possible.

Of the cases in PNG 2,300 have been in Western Province which is just a few KM from the islands of the Torres Strait. In the nation's capital, Port Moresby, there have been over 5,000 cases. Air links between Port Moresby and Australia remain but are heavily restricted.

There are two aspects of the Covid-19 position in Papua New Guinea that simply must concern the Australian Government and community.

The first is that Covid-19 cases are grossly under-reported and are highly likely to be even higher than the 30,000 cases in Australia. But almost all the PNG cases have been since February this year. Death numbers are also under reported.

The second is that there is overwhelming evidence of widespread community resistance to both testing and vaccination. It would seem that only a few thousand of the rural majority have been vaccinated both due to resistance and the complexity of rolling out vaccinations in a country where the health system has essentially "failed". Even when vaccines are available, the health workers needed to administer them is in very short supply.

The Australian Government needs to urgently review its whole approach to responding to the pandemic in PNG. Our approach in the other island neighbours is working effectively.

I strongly believe we have to urgently look at the total PNG health system –a failed system that has the potential to make the pandemic much worse!

Papua New Guinea risks being effectively isolated for years. The economic and social consequences of that for PNG, and for Australia, will be absolutely catastrophic.

Public health education has to be undertaken – but that will take years.

Restoring public confidence in the health system will also take time and money. But it ought to be our starting point, bringing together the wonderful resources of the Christian churches, NGO groups such as YWAM and the Australian health system.

This is not just a great opportunity for Australia to help our closest neighbour. It is a unique opportunity to enhance what is truly "the Australian national interest" A rampant pandemic on our border is a threat we simply have to fully comprehend and respond to!