Will oil hit $80 this summer?

Rystad analyst Louise Dickson said that oil demand should still increase by 3 million bpd between now and the end of June, India troubles or no. According to her, oil prices should make their way back to $70 per barrel in the coming months.

UBS sees vaccine rollouts as a major positive for the oil industry. As people return to normal activities and businesses fully reopen, oil demand will cause Brent to increase to $75 per barrel in H2, according to analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

Moody's has a rather positive view of the timing of an oil price rebound as well, citing pent-up consumer demand that will propel forward a global economic recovery. But their medium-term price range is still capped at $65 per barrel. Moody's sees this economic recovery as hastening a rebound in oil demand through the end of this year and the beginning of next year.

The outlook may be uncertain, but the current trend is definitely one of drawing down oil stocks—a sign of increased oil demand while OPEC+ continues to restrict output. In the highly visible US oil market, for example, commercial crude inventories have finally retreated back to the five-year average for this time of year at 493 million barrels.

India's virus explosion will not prevent an oil price recovery. But it very likely that it will slow the recovery well into the second half of this year or even the beginning to middle of next year.

If that turns out to be the case, that's a long time for OPEC+ members to continue their output restrictions while demand takes its sweet time recovering.