How will the developed world deal with migration from sub-Saharan Africa?

• South Africa 59 million (4% of Africa total)
• Nigeria 206 million (15% of Africa total)

So although Africa is supposedly 'doing better' than much of the rest of the world in dealing with the pandemic, the reality is that this is not true. Many countries do not have the wherewithal to monitor the situation properly, and others, like Tanzania, just deny the existence of any cases at all.

African's chronic problems have not gone away during the pandemic. Food shortages caused by drought, climate change and the needs of a growing population will be exacerbated by restrictions imposed by various African countries in response to the pandemic.

Certain staple crops such as maize and rice have not been planted at the correct time, so there are likely to be supply problems and food shortages in 2021 and beyond throughout Africa.

Education is another chronic problem. Education in Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, tends to be patchy. Twenty per cent of six- to eleven-year-olds are out of school, as are about a third of 12- to 14-year-olds. About 30% of children receive a secondary education, although this has grown from about 11% in 1970. Girls tend to be disadvantaged in favour of boys.

Not only is the population growing faster than individual economies are able to support them – there is a growing cohort of uneducated or poorly educated children trying to join the workforce.To compound the situation, there is rampant corruption throughout the continent, almost without exception. (Botswana which has a 'zero corruption' policy, is the exception). Some examples, from Transparency International's corruption index:

New Zealand 1 (i.e. the least corrupt country in the world)

Australia 12

• UK 12
• USA 23
• Botswana 34
• South Africa 70
• Kenya 137
• Nigeria 146
• Sudan 173
• Somalia 180 (out of 180. i.e. the most corrupt country)

Despite investment in Africa, currently about $US 40 billion more leaves Africa annually than arrives there. Some of this is legitimate investment but much of it is money being sent, illegally as a result of corruption, to 'safe havens'.So a significant portion of the limited wealth of most African countries is being stolen by the 'elite' and hidden away in, often, Swiss bank accounts, instead of being spent on much needed infrastructure, such as schools and hospitals.

Corruption also extends to government employment. Many of the people employed in government jobs are there because of who they are or who they know. They are not there on their own merit, so often government jobs are not done competently. The result is that more and more people, both in total and as a percentage of the population, are already unable to make a living sufficient to feed and educate their families. The Covid 19 pandemic will make this situation even worse.

Many people will feel they have no option but to make a hazardous journey through the Sahara Desert to the Libyan coast, in the hope that they can find a way to Europe, or even Australia, as refugees.

For a number of years now, the developed world's response to the refugee crisis has firstly been to politicise the situation – making any kind of solution more difficult to achieve – and secondly, to try to protect their borders, without giving any thought to the longer term. For example: the 'Wall' on the Mexico/US Border; the EU's 'Frontex' operation, which has agents in various countries who cooperate with local police and whose aim is to stop refugees from even starting on their intended journey; some EU nations have patrols in the Mediterranean stopping refugee boats; Australia's 'stop the boats' policy; Japan restricting any refugee intake at all - in 2019 Japan accepted only 42 asylum seekers.

Should we care? Many will suggest that this is Africa's problem and they should just get on with it and solve it themselves. In the long run this attitude will not work. The developed world will be confronted with a veritable tsunami of refugees wanting 'a better life' and making more and more desperate and concerted efforts to move to a developed country. There are currently about 80 million people worldwide classed by the UN as refugees, a figure that does not even include all people looking 'for a better life.' The numbers grow every day.

What can the developed world do? In recent days it is notable that the Americans have found it necessary to ease the restrictions on refugees trying to cross into the USA from Mexico. This is part of recognising the problem of Latin America's refugee population. I will provide some ideas in another article, but there is no short term or easy solution.