We can't leave yet - Australia has much more to commit to Iraq

Using estimates from the World Bank, the United Nations and the Coalition Provisional Authority, the Congressional Budget Office examined best and worse-case scenarios for the period 2004 to 2007.

In the worst case, there would be a funding shortfall of $101 billion and strategic and humanitarian needs would go begging. If events went astonishingly well - debt was forgiven and oil revenues increased markedly - then a small surplus would be generated.

Muddling through would result in a deficit of about $42 billion.

In assessing the scenario more likely to eventuate, and how much assistance would therefore be required, we can be confident that things will not go astonishingly well.

These are the calculations our leaders never speak about. Although the Prime Minister has addressed the nation on weapons of mass destruction, he has not canvassed issues of mass construction in a systematic and coherent way.

To date, Australia has contributed $120 million to the task of rebuilding Iraq. The bulk of this was announced last year. Since then, as circumstances in Iraq have deteriorated, the government has seen fit to increase assistance but only by $20 million.

All this amounts to significantly less than the cost of military operations in Iraq and less than the money uselessly spent by the government on the baby bonus.

As part of our total contribution to Iraq, some $40 million has been provided for the direct task of reconstructing agriculture. This is to be compared with a total cost of rebuilding the agricultural sector, estimated at between $1.6 billion and $4 billion.

Much of the agricultural assistance has been provided in a way that will protect future exports of Australian wheat to Iraq. For a long time, Iraq has been an Australian market and we want to keep it that way. Much effort has focused on the development of institutions, policies and facilities that favour Australian sales.

That is, in determining the heft and shape of assistance, a concern of the government has been not the wellbeing of Iraqis but the good health of Australian wheat growers.

Staying to finish the job? In Iraq, Australian efforts are more a racket than a job.

Our warming belief that Australians do not cut and run is therefore illusionary. The truth is that we’re quite content for our government to let Iraqis sink or swim.