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Don't expect too much from the Biden presidency

By Keith Suter - posted Monday, 11 January 2021


Biden will make little progress in reversing the trend. Indeed he was part of it in the Obama Administration and many of his proposed appointees are veterans of that Obama era. That era helped Trump get elected; Biden's failures will help Trump or his successor in the 2024 election.

Part of the American nightmare has been the rise of China as the global factory. China expects to be the number one global power by 2049 (the 100th anniversary of the Chinese communist revolution). It is on a collision course with the current number one power.

Therefore although Biden may use a less aggressive tone towards China, the underlying problems will remain. Trump to his credit did not embark on additional conflicts against extremist Islamic groups. Instead he redirected the US military towards a more conventional military challenge: a conflict with China in the South China Sea. That risk remains.

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Incidentally, Australia is like a child caught between divorcing parents. It is an ally of the US but China is its main trading partner. It needs China and US to remain on good terms. Australia does not want to be forced to make a choice between them.

To conclude, the problems confronting the US are not easily solved by any one president. The US has major structural problems and competitors. COVID and violence extremists may get the publicity but there are deeper issues at work that will overwhelm presidents.

The US has, of course, solved structural problems in the past. Over a century ago, the US government took on oil and railway corporation giants (the Facebook, Apple, and Google of their day) and broke up the corporate giants. In the 1930s the Roosevelt Administration turned away from the new right economic rationalism of the 1920s and created a new American economy (which then gave us the "American dream" of the 1950s and 1960s).

Reform is possible. But I doubt that Biden is the person to do it.

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About the Author

Dr Keith Suter is a futurist, thought leader and media personality in the areas of social policy and foreign affairs. He is a prolific and well-respected writer and social commentator appearing on radio and television most weeks.

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