A future of infectious disease

Deforestation, the spread of farms and livestock as well as the continued human intrusion on remote rural areas all play an important part.

There is nothing new about this process. 

Sweating Sickness that killed more than 20,000 people in England in the late 15^th early 16^th century was closely tied to the mass destruction of woodland in parts of England liberating a zoonotic virus from its animal host. Or more recently reforestation in the north-eastern part of the USA led to Lyme Disease when reforestation schemes provided a fertile environment for people, deer and a deer-borne tick to interact.

In addition, as the re-emergence of childhood infections demonstrates our reluctance to vaccinate plays a critical role.

Ever since SARS we were repeatedly told that another pandemic was coming.

Australia has a long history of pandemics ranging from childhood infections like measles and scarlet fever to diseases such as smallpox, plague, influenza, polio and HIV/AIDS. Many have been long forgotten. Who for example remembers the pandemic of Encephalitis Lethargica which swept the world after 1917 and which impacted strongly on Australia?

Most of these past pandemics were defining moments in Australia’s history. But how quickly we forget our past and how little we seem to have learnt from such experience. Has Coronavirus produced any change and have we learnt new lessons? I very much doubt it.

There is little doubt that the microbial world remains an important threat to our health and wellbeing. As I have said on numerous occasions, we continue to ignore the importance of the biophysical environment and realise that it is an ever-changing force which continues to play a critical role in our lives.

What we seem to forget is that we are just one of a series of competing species in a world where many processes are cyclical or waxing and waning. We also continue to ignore the fact that the microbial world exhibits a dynamism and resilience that confirms the importance of evolution in the natural world.

In addition, we continue to believe that not only are we the dominant species in our world but also that we can deal quickly and efficiently with any bacterial or viral threat that emerges by simply instituting a policy of quarantine and isolation before developing a magic bullet or vaccine. But at what price?

How many cases and deaths will have occurred from Coronavirus before a vaccine becomes widely available and manages to avoid anti-vaccinators? In the end our efforts to control or eradicate infectious disease is utopian. Microbes are selected for survival and mutate and change in accordance with changes in their host and environment. Will we ever come to fully recognise such things and adapt our lives accordingly? I wonder.