Might Taiwan be the next Franz Ferdinand moment?

Strategically, the loss of Taiwan would be disastrous for the region's democracies. Taiwan is the linchpin in a chain of islands that constrains China's ability to dominate the whole of the Western Pacific. Its fall would enable the People's Liberation Army to isolate Japan, push the US back towards the Central Pacific and consolidate its hold over the northern approaches to Australia and the critical Strait of Malacca, gateway to the world's most important trade route.

China would also gain access to Taiwan's world-leading semiconductor technology offsetting the one clear advantage the US holds in the race for technological and military supremacy.

Ritual denunciation of China or a token military contribution to Taiwan's defence in the form of a frigate or surveillance aircraft won't make much difference to the outcome. It would merely bring down China's wrath upon us without measurably helping Taiwan or reassuring allies that Australia can be relied upon in a crisis.

Whatever we do must be calibrated, meaningful and co-ordinated with allies. Effective deterrence is the key. We need to get out in front of the next Taiwan crisis before it occurs by helping to build pressure on China to step back from military or coercive action that could trigger a third global conflict.