Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

China: 10 warning signs to look for

By Keith Suter - posted Monday, 21 September 2020


Seventh, China may grow old before it grows rich. It could pay the price of its demographic brutality, where the "one child policy" has created a generation of spoilt "little emperors" and eventually a shortage of skilled workers. The one child policy was enforced for over three decades and it has been one of the world's most extraordinary population control measures.

Eighth, the Chinese could turn their back on modern materialism. The current level of wealth is unprecedented; a traditional Chinese gentleman before the Western colonizers arrived about two centuries ago was someone who wrote poetry and did drawings; only crude Westerners thought so much about money. Could China rediscover its spiritual roots and discard the Western fetish for materialism and economic growth?

Ninth, the Chinese military could embark on foreign adventures (starting with rebellious Taiwan) and so bankrupt the country through excessive military expenditure. This would be in keeping with the pattern of the European empires over the past half millennium: they began as small trading entities, then expanded their overseas commitments, then bankrupted themselves in overseas military operations.

Advertisement

Finally, China has done very well out of the US as a prime market for exports but there is a threat to China's continued economic growth if the US makes only a slow recovery. China is vulnerable to the flaw in the model that has worked so well in the post-1945 Asian economic story: heavy dependence on exports. China is vulnerable to a Western economic downturn – both in the US and EU - because there is not enough domestic Chinese economic demand.

To conclude China may become the world's dominant country by 2049 – or it may not.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. Page 2
  4. All


Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

8 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Dr Keith Suter is a futurist, thought leader and media personality in the areas of social policy and foreign affairs. He is a prolific and well-respected writer and social commentator appearing on radio and television most weeks.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Keith Suter

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Photo of Keith Suter
Article Tools
Comment 8 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy