The inevitable emergence of an Israeli-Arab alliance

Regardless of the fact that the Palestinians have intensely criticized the UAE-Israeli peace agreement – with Senior Advisor Nabil Abu Rudeineh saying "the Palestinian leadership rejects and denounces the UAE, Israeli and US trilateral, surprising announcement" and that the deal is a "betrayal of Jerusalem, Al-Aqsa and the Palestinian cause" – they see the writing on the wall. The longer they wait to resume peace negotiations with Israel, the less support and backing they will receive from the Arab states and the weaker their position will become, especially since further annexation of Palestinian land has not been permanently removed from the table, from the perspective of the powerful Israeli extreme right constituency.

President Abbas will now be under increasing pressure from the EU and the Arab states not to miss yet another critical opening to engage the Israelis. He must seize the opportunity to reopen negotiations with Israel while they have paused annexation as part of their agreement with the UAE. Especially considering the fact that Bahrain and Sudan are in the process of negotiating a similar deal with Israel, which must likewise freeze further annexation, this is the opportune time for Abbas. Otherwise, he stands to lose further grounds and scuttle, perhaps permanently, the prospect of establishing a Palestinian state.

Hamas too will have to rethink its position, as the significant mounting loss of the Arab states' backing will become increasingly more acute over time. The sooner it enters into a new peace negotiation with a long-term Hudna (ceasefire) as an interlude to reaching a permanent peace agreement separately or together with the PA, the better off it will be. Hamas will also realize that they will no longer be able to rely on either Iran or Turkey for financial and political support once the alliance is in place.

The effect on Turkey's expansionist ambition The third significant implication of the prospective Israeli-Arab alliance is that it will serve to obstruct Turkish President Erdogan's drive to revive elements of the Ottoman Empire and usurp Saudi Arabia's leadership of Sunni Islam worldwide. In direct opposition to and contrary to the interest of the Gulf and other Arab states and Israel, Erdogan staunchly supports Islamist extremist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and even ISIS, to advance his menacing agenda which directly threatens the mainstream Arab states. A future Arab-Israeli alliance will create an impenetrable wall that will prevent Erdogan from further meddling in Middle Eastern affairs.

Erdogan also opposes the UAE-Israeli peace agreement because he knows that over time a broad Arab-Israeli alliance will include Qatar (where Turkey has a military presence), which wants to return to the fold of Gulf states where its ultimate national interests lie. The alliance, once in place, will also weaken Turkey's ties with Sudan, which is eager to establish peace with Israel. It is likely that Sudan will cancel its agreement with Turkey to lease Suakin Island in the Red Sea, which Erdogan wants to restore as a tourist destination (although it is quite clear to me that he is planning to station Turkish troops with proximity to the Arabian Peninsula) as part of his overall scheme to establish a neo-Ottoman era.

All that Turkey can say is that "History and the conscience of the region's people will not forget and never forgive this hypocritical behavior. It is extremely worrying that the UAE should, with a unilateral action, try and do away with the Arab Peace Plan developed by the Arab League." However, it is wrong on both counts: the Israeli-UAE peace agreement has immensely positive regional implications, and it is still consistent with the API because none of the Arab states are reneging on the need to establish a Palestinian state, except that they have to change strategy to achieve the same result.

Notwithstanding the fact that Trump and Netanyahu played an important role in putting the deal together, the foundation of this peace agreement was laid several years ago. Trump pushed hard to get it done now, as he is desperate for a win of sorts just before the election. Netanyahu, just like Trump, badly needs to demonstrate his statesmanship at this time, not only because of the prospect that his government could collapse any day and he wants a strong record to run on, but also because the clock is running out just before he stands trial on three criminal charges.

In the next few months, we will witness how the Israeli-Arab alliance is shaping up. Thanks to Iran, one thing is clear-the alliance will become an irreversible reality because under any circumstances, it will serve not only the Arab states' collective national security interest, which is first and foremost in their mind, but the promise of security, prosperity, and peace.