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Saudi Arabia eyes total dominance in oil and gas

By Julieanne Geiger - posted Friday, 3 July 2020

By 2050, the EIA sees the production of crude oil, lease condensate, natural gas plant liquids (NGPLs) and other liquid fuels from 2018 to 2050 reaching 121.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2050, or about 21% more than 2018 levels.

For crude oil and lease condensate, the EIA sees OPEC members increasing production by 9.5 million bpd, and non-OPEC countries increasing their crude oil and lease condensate production by 8 million bpd. This translates into a 27% increase for OPEC countries and a 17% increase for non-OPEC countries, according to the EIA's International Annual Energy Outlook.

Overall, the EIA expects the OPEC countries to produce 56% of total global production in 2050.

Most of that production increase that OPEC nations (27%) will see will come from the Middle East, which is expected to increase by 35% to 2050.

IMG URL: https://d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net/tinymce/2020-06/1593555155-o_1ec3kjnvh1nqk2f11m23s2ii268.jpg

IMG URL: https://d32r1sh890xpii.cloudfront.net/tinymce/2020-06/1593555165-o_1ec3kk4tvo7l4n54bnctd1ldg8.jpg

Meanwhile, production in Russia (14%) and Canada (123%) are expected to increase at a quicker rate than the United States (8%) and Brazil (50%).

Using historical production figures courtesy of BP and forecasts published by peakoilbarrel, the top four oil producers remain in their positions through 2050.

Toeing the Saudi Line

Prince Abdulaziz's chest-puffing seems to be in line with Saudi Arabia's previous assertions that oil will be alive and well in 2050 despite attempts to spur the world along an energy transition. Even as far back as 2007, Aramco said it could boost reserves to as many as 1 trillion barrels by 2027, adding that it would be 2050 or later before production peaks.

But some of Saudi Arabia's forecasts of fossil fuel's future were more sober-minded, even seeing a phasing out of fossil fuels by the middle of this century, Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister at the time said in 2015.

"In Saudi Arabia, we recognize that eventually, one of these days, we are not going to need fossil fuels. I don't know when, in 2040, 2050 or thereafter," al-Naimi said, adding that Saudi Arabia was therefore planning on becoming a "global power in solar and wind energy."