There's also no doubt that the well-resourced Chinese embassy in Port Moresby, with its more than 100 staff, has been lobbying-even heavying-PNG politicians and village leaders to stop the project.
While China seems to have lost some interest in acquiring more of the PNG resources sector, its engagement in areas such as communications, defence and the future of Bougainville is as active as ever.
What the Australian government must do immediately is expedite the tender process. That two years have elapsed without a tender being granted is disappointing and, frankly, dangerous.
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The tender, worth around $175 million, would likely be awarded to an Australian company, or one with both Australian and American links, given the US's involvement in the initial agreement.
But what Australia also needs to do is maximise local content by actively seeking participation by Manus Island businesses and contractors in a genuine and meaningful way.
That shouldn't be hard to do. A number of Manus companies and contractors have been engaged on work associated with the construction and operation of the island's detention centre since 2013. It remains questionable whether that engagement has been adequate and it would be beneficial if local involvement were given high priority in the new project.
Australia has received a significant warning shot on an issue that is absolutely vital to its national interest. It needs to lift its game with urgency.
And lifting its game needs to include a significant marketing and community engagement program on Manus, and across PNG as a whole.
There remains within the PNG community-and in the national parliament-significant goodwill towards Australia, and an acknowledgement that Manus Island, and the naval base and airport, have significant links with our wartime history, and that of the United States.
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Australia must never take that goodwill for granted. It is under pressure from unfriendly groups, and from the government of the PRC, in particular.
Killing off the naval base project would be a massive coup for China and an even greater setback for Australia and the US.
Time is short. PNG politics is increasingly volatile, and campaigning for the next election is already underway. The PNG economy is in dire straits. The construction of the base, and the engagement of the PNG Defence Force in its future operations, will not just serve Australia's national interest and provide greater regional stability, but can and must benefit our closest neighbour as well.
It really is step-up time.
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