Just what’s going on in Queensland politics?

Queensland’s parliamentary majority stands on a very jagged knife’s edge. Out of 93 seats the ruling ALP holds 48. After providing a speaker that is 47 — one more than is required for a majority on the floor without requiring the speaker to exercise a casting vote.

Labor will lose one of their seats to the Greens. Jackie Trad, former Treasurer and powerbroker, under investigation by the CCC, occupies a seat represented by the Greens in the council which party the LNP has decided to preference at the next election.

But on the other side the LNP opposition still seems a long way from power. If it wanted an absolute majority it would need to increase the 38 seats it holds by 9, because there are 6 minor party members and one independent holding the two sides apart.

With the current climate favourable to minor parties and independents, none of those nine are likely to be won from them.

Two of the minor parties – Katter’s Australia Party and Jason Costigan’s North Queensland First Party – could be expected to support the LNP in government, but the remaining cross-benchers – a One Nation member, and an Independent – could be problematic, while the two prospective Greens would side with Labor.

One Nation would be problematic because of the LNP’s need to win seats in Brisbane where Aspley and Mansfield are real possibilities on the margins. A sniff of a deal with One Nation could cruel their chances here.

The Independent, Sandy Boulton from Noosa, could be in an interesting position. While she appears to be more Labor than Liberal, Noosa is basically an LNP area. She could find herself in a similar position to the one Kerryn Phelps held in the last federal parliament, and Phelps showed what a tightrope that can be.

Further complicating issues is that other winnable seats are in Central, North and Far North Queensland – areas that swung heavily to the Coalition at the last federal election. But these are areas where independents and third parties are doing particularly well, and where the state LNP doesn’t really “get” the culture.

It may also find itself wedged on the issue of coal mining. It plays well with regional voters, but is poison in Brisbane.

So where that leaves us is a real possibility of a minority government after the next election with the options being Labor in alliance with the Greens against the LNP with both blocs trying to sort out arrangements with Katter, North Queensland First, One Nation and at least one Independent.

And that’s at a minimum. The two major parties are on the nose. It’s a good time to be anything but, so the number of independents could be swelled particularly from seats in the north of the state and the periphery of Brisbane.