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What if the experts were wrong – really wrong?

By David Pellowe - posted Tuesday, 21 April 2020

In 2001 Professor Neil Ferguson, professor of mathematical biology and director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London, predicted up to 150,000 could die in the UK.alone from mad cow disease. Panicked politicians and ballistic bureaucrats ordered the culling of over 6 million animals and economically vandalised rural Britain.

Only 177 people died.

Professor Michael Thrusfield of Edinburgh University claimed Professor Ferguson's model made incorrect assumptions about transmission. This government expert's model was criticised as "not fit for purpose" and "severely flawed", and established a history of wildly overestimating death rates through his prediction models.


Nevertheless, when President Trump & Boris Johnson consulted their government experts, they in turn relied on a model again developed by Professor Ferguson, this time predicting 2.2 million deaths in America and 500,000 in England.

Two weeks later Professor "Woopsies" Ferguson revised his prediction, much like the average tarot card reader, to possibly much lower than 20,000 deaths in the U.K – one twenty-fifth of his first guess.

It was his initial report which told world leaders entire households should stay in isolation if any member showed any symptoms. World leaders panicked and hit the big red button – but there was no emergency.

Preventing Preventable Deaths "At Any Cost"

The rates of new coronavirus infections in America, England, Sweden, Italy, Israel, France, Germany, Switzerland and Spain have been plotted by Professor Yitzhak Ben Israel of Tel Aviv University. The actual historical data (not models with the reliability of crystal ball-gazing) tell a sobering story.

Coronavirus has peaked and subsided in the exact same way regardless of social freedom or heavy restrictions in different countries. The number of infected peaks in the sixth week and rapidly subsides by the eighth.


More Infectious & Less Fatal Than Experts Guessed

A team at the University of Oxford have released findings using a different model using different assumptions than Professor "Woopsies" Ferguson. They say up to half the people in the United Kingdom could already have been infected. This concurs with a study out of Stanford University finding the covid-19 infection rate is much higher – 50 to 85 times higher – than reported. Research on a large group of blood donors in Denmark also backs up the studies contradicting Professor "Woopsies" Ferguson.

If coronavirus is much more infectious than originally estimated by government experts, it's not all bad news. In fact it also means the mortality rate is much lower than the 1-3% indicated by the World Health Organisation. WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has previously suggested 3.4%. This would translate into 340 deaths per 10,000 infected persons. Stanford's study would mean the mortality rate is just 0.14% or lower, making covid-19 about as deadly as the seasonal flu, which has a yearly mortality rate around 0.1% according to both Anthony Fauci and Dr. Tedros.

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This article was first published on Pellowe Talk.

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About the Author

Dave Pellowe is a Christian conservative commentator & speaker, the founder of the annual Church And State Summit and blogs at

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