COVID-19 emergency: an opportunity

Some epidemiologists have predicted that the spread of COVID-19 may peak in a few weeks, at around Easter. It may then re-emerge later in the year, perhaps at around November, to become a part of our regular "menu" of health threats.

For the vast majority of people who contract this virus, their illness, while unpleasant, will not result in death. Terminal cases seem to occur mainly among people in their 60s and older, with increasing impacts in more senior years.

Right now, across entire populations, the rates of infection are relatively small. However, they are growing, in some cases rapidly. There's no room for complacency.

If it is not contained and eventually cured, the virus may mutate further, making it harder to track and destroy - and potentially more dangerous to children and young people.

The emergence of COVIN-19 was a wild-card event, in that the specific strain of the virus might be considered low in probability, but high in impact.

It might have taken one of many thousands of forms, any of which might have made it more or less dangerous to human beings.

This is important to remember, especially in light of attempts by some people to read political messages into COVID-19's emergence.

Various governments may be more or less prepared to deal with viral outbreaks, but no administration can guarantee its citizenry complete immunity from wild-card diseases.

At the time of writing, entire regions in Italy are effectively cut off from the outside world as governments attempt to contain the virus.

Meanwhile, even in relatively "quiet zones" for the disease, celebrities and even government heads and ministers have tested positive and are heading into self-isolation.

The British government, like others around the world, has advised people to reduce their contact with others. In line with this, many people have chosen to stay at home to work.

Hand-shaking has become far less common; hand-washing far more so.