Will Venezuela be Trump's first war?

Three out of about 20 Latin American countries hardly represent a flood of communism. But the US is nervous that other countries could still follow suit.

Meanwhile Russia and China are now both siding with the Maduro government. Both have invested heavily in the country – and so ignored the US's economic sanctions. Maduro is also supported by Turkey and Iran.

Therefore there are larger issues involved than the daily tragedy of trying to survive in Venezuela.

China has a vision of becoming the global super power in 2049 (100^th anniversary of the Chinese communist revolution). Its manoeuvring over Venezuela is part of the global power politics chess game.

Trump has a dilemma. Countries are looking to the US – as per the Monroe doctrine – to sort out Venezuela. Getting rid of Maduro would be a step in the right direction (such as by encouraging him to retire to Cuba). But the next leader will still have immense economic problems to sort out.

What happens if Maduro refuses to leave? Will the US attempt "regime change". Previous attempts (as in Iraq) have ended badly. The US does not have a good record.

But if Trump decides to leave Venezuela to sort itself out, then the US will be seen as no longer the sole dominant player in Latin America. It may embolden China and Russia to get further involved in Latin America. The "Monroe doctrine" will be eroded.

Trump had a comparatively easy first two years in office, with no major foreign policy crisis. His final two years will not be so easy.