Where the jobs will be in 2023

I suspect this is a blanket assumption about jobs centralization and I also suspect it won't eventuate. Political strategies aside, there is increasing evidence that employment dispersal – driven by the changing nature of growth industries and where they need to be located – is going to transform urban economies in the future. It has been fashionable to talk about the clustering of growth industries and so-called knowledge workers in city cores, but the evidence from our Census and the evidence from overseas is increasingly pointing to a different pattern of growth, occurring organically in suburban business districts in metro regions.

This last graph looks at Queensland, my home state. A more decentralized economy than NSW or Victoria, it is also likely to be subject to different economic forces in the future, if the forecasts are correct. The predictions are that Ipswich to Brisbane's west will lead job growth in the 2018-2023 period, followed closely by the Gold Coast, Brisbane South, then the Sunshine Coast, then the inner city and then Toowoomba. Seven of the top 10 growth regions will be outside the greater Brisbane area.

Understanding what drives jobs growth and where this is likely to happen is essential to economics, demography, settlement strategy and efficient planning. The figures released by the Federal Government show an economy increasingly reliant on jobs growth in two major cities, but not in the city centres of those cities. Even for the other major capitals, the predictions are for the bulk of state jobs growth to occur in the capital city of that state, but for a minority of the jobs in the capital city to occur in the city centre.

The figures endorse the need for urban infrastructure policies that provide equal priority to the infrastructure needs and placemaking enhancements of suburban centres, just as they have done for city centres in the past. This is just common sense.

The figures also underline the importance of looking into ways of sharing future jobs growth opportunities around the nation more equitably. If we don't, we will increasingly see population and infrastructure pressure focused on just two cities, and a national economy increasingly exposed to their economic fortunes. There are 30 cities in Australia with more than 50,000 people and 19 with more than 100,000 people. Surely we can do better than this?

My suggestion is to explore ways of enhancing the appeal of outer suburban and regional centres as places for business. Improved transport, attractive taxes, quality affordable housing, schools, hospitals and so on are important for workers and for employers alike. No one – employee or employer – will want to set up shop in a place that resembles Australia's equivalent of a third world centre. A national program of meaningful and strategic regional and suburban renewal would be a step in the right direction to restoring the attractiveness and competitiveness of these alternatives.