Victorian election: a narrow gate could yet open for Guy

This means that in a lot of minds the choice isn't between two potential dishonest premiers, but between a dishonest almost-certain premier, and a dishonest probable opposition leader.

So Andrews' ethical laxity is more dangerous to Labor than Guy's is to the Libs, because Andrews is more likely to be in a position of power, where it matters.

This is even more likely because only 50% of voters wants Labor to win or think it deserves to win (versus 46% who think the Liberal Nationals deserve to win).

This is where the narrow gate for both the Liberals and Greens appears.

Labor has more seats at risk on slimmer margins than the Liberals, so is more vulnerable to a protest vote, which is more likely when the incumbent appears set to win, but has some negatives and doesn't appear to be trying too hard.

Law and order and cultural issues are likely to alienate some traditional Labor and swinging voters in the outer suburban ring. This is where the nationalists, who are the heartland of conservative politics, live, and where the election is likely to be won. Labor's pitch to them is the Suburban Loop train project, which will arrive by 2050. The Liberals are promising better road networks, which will arrive sooner, and are culturally aligned, which is probably more important.

Wanting Labor to move further left is likely to be a driver in the inner suburban ring where the cosmopolitans live. This is where power may shift to the Greens who are bidding 100% renewable electricity by 2030, bans on pokies, and cessation of native timber logging, funded by taxes on banks and property developers.

A strongly negative campaign against Labor by Greens and Liberals would be mutually reinforcing, and peel votes off left and right, from voters who are sure neither of them will be the government.

Labor is no doubt aware of these tactical weaknesses and is likely to spend the last week talking up the dangers of a hung parliament or a change of government.

The fates of governments hang on such foibles of public opinion. Jeff Kennett,John Brumby and Denis Napthine all fell victim to some iteration of the protest vote.